Syracuse Lacrosse: Updated ACC Tournament seeding scenarios

So the North Carolina Tar Heels took down the Virginia Cavaliers on Sunday night, which eliminates eight different scenarios for us. Due to the loss, UVA will now be the fifth seed in the ACC Tournament and will play the Pennsylvania Quakers in the ACC Showcase game. Penn has already beaten UVA this season, and even if the Cavaliers win out I doubt it makes the NCAA Tournament. If Virginia had won it would have meant a guaranteed one seed for the Syracuse Orange in the ACC Tournament. Since that did not happen, the Orange can still get the first seed. In fact there are only two scenarios in which SU does not pick up the first seed.

Let’s quickly look at the tie-breaker criteria in order of what is looked at first.

1. Head-to-Head: If two teams are tied then the head-to-head winner gets the nod. If more than two teams are tied, then we look at the winnin percentage versus the other tied teams. If doing so reduces the number of tied teams then we take that team out of the mix and compare the remaining teams head-to-head winning percenatages.

2. Record versus teams holding the higher ranking in the standings

3. Goals allowed amongst the tied teams in conference play against the other tied teams

4. Goal differential in conference games

5. Blind draw

There is only one situation in which it could come down to a fewest goals allowed amongst the tied teams tie-breaker. That scenario is if UNC beats Syracuse, Duke beats UVA, and UNC beats Notre Dame. In that case, Duke, SU, and UNC would all be tied at 3-1 while Notre Dame would be the fourth seed and UVA would be the fifth seed. As it stands right now:

Duke: 20 goals against

UNC: 12 goals against

Syracuse: 11 goals against

However, UNC and Syracuse still have to play each other.

Let’s dive in…

Syracuse Orange

Best Result: 1^st Seed

How that Happens: It is actually easier to look at how that doesn’t happen. Scenario 1: If Duke beats UVA, UNC beats Syracuse, and UNC beats Notre Dame then there would be a three way tie for first place between SU, Duke and UNC. The teams would be tied in head-to-head and record against better teams (because there wouldn’t be any), so then the tie-breaker would be fewest goals allowed in conference games against the tied opponents. Scenario 2: If UNC beats Syracuse, UVA beats Duke, and UNC beats Notre Dame the seeding would be as follows: 1. UNC, 2 SU, 3. Duke, 4. Notre Dame, 5. UVA. The easiest way for Syracuse to guarantee themselves the first seed is to beat Carolina.

Worst Result: 3^rd Seed

How that Happens: If UNC beats Syracuse, Duke beats UVA, UNC beats Notre Dame, and the Orange have the most goals against in a comparison of games versus the tied opponents (UNC, Duke, SU).

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Best Result: 3^rd Seed

How that Happens: No matter what, Notre Dame beats UNC in two weeks.

Worst Result: 4^th Seed

How that Happens: No matter what, UNC beats Notre Dame in two weeks

Duke Blue Devils

Best Result: 1^st Seed

How that Happens: UNC beats Syracuse, Duke beats UVA, UNC beats Notre Dame, and Duke has the fewest goals against in conference games versus SU and UNC as compared to SU and UNC against the same opponents.

Worst Result: 3^rd Seed

How that Happens: Scenario 1: UNC beats Syracuse, Duke beats UVA, UNC beats Notre Dame, and Duke has the most goals against in conference games versus SU and UNC as compared to SU and UNC against the same opponents. Scenario 2: If UNC beats Syracuse, UVA beats Duke, and Notre Dame beats UNC then the seeding would look as follows: 1. UNC, 2. SU, 3. Duke, 4. Notre Dame, 5. UVA.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Best Result: 1^st Seed

How that Happens: Scenario 1: UNC beats Syracuse, UVA beats Duke, and UNC beats Notre Dame. If that were the case the seeding would look like this: 1. UNC, 2. SU, 3. Duke, 4. Notre Dame, 5. UVA. Scenario 2: UNC beats Syracuse, Duke beats UVA, UNC beats Notre Dame, and the Heels have the fewest goals against in games versus SU and Duke as compared to those teams versus the same opponents.

Worst Result: 4^th Seed

How that Happens: Scenario 1: Regardless of what happens in the Duke-UVA game, if Syracuse beats UNC and Notre Dame beats UNC then the Heels will be the fourth seed. Scenario 2: Regardless of what happens in the Duke-UVA game, if UNC beats Syracuse and Notre Dame beats UNC, the Heels would be the fourth seed.

Virginia Cavaliers

Best Result: 5^th Seed

How that Happens: No matter what.

Worst Result: 5^th Seed

How that Happens: No matter what.