clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

2016 NCAA Lacrosse Bracketology, Version 1

While I have the Orange in the Tournament, I did leave out three other ACC teams. There are still plenty of games to be played but check out my first go at bracketology for 2016.

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Well, it is that time of the year again when we can begin speculating about the NCAA Tournament picture. Before we get into it, let's go over a few notes:

-       The Committee looks at: Strength of Schedule, Head-to-Head Competition, RPI (wins against top 5, top 10, and top 20, losses verse teams outside the top 20 in RPI)

-       There are 10 automatic qualifiers and eight at-large bids

-       Only the top eight teams are seeded

-       The #1 and #2 seeds play the winner of play-in games

-       The four lowest rated AQs must play in the play-in game

-       A team must have a winning record to be an at-large bid

-       Non-seeded teams are placed with geographic consideration

-       First round matchups are determined with consideration given to separate conference oppenents

This year, we have a pretty solid 1-5 grouping of teams. As far as the at-large bids go, the final two are really up in the air at this point. I believe the Syracuse Orange will make the tournament as the first, non-seeded team, but after that everything is up in the air.

For me, the final spot in this version (at this point in time) of my bracketology comes down to the Stony Brook Seawolves vs. the Duke Blue Devils. Duke has two wins over top twenty teams in the RPI but four losses against programs outside of the top twenty in RPI. Stony Brook doesn't have any wins in the top twenty nor any losses to teams outside of the top twenty. The Seawolves are #8 in RPI and Duke is #17. In terms of strength of schedule, Duke has the edge at #17 while Stony Brook sits at #31. As for common opponents, the only one is Lehigh, which both teams beat. The biggest problem for Duke is that the Blue Devils could end up with a losing record which would make them ineligible for post-season play unless they win the automatic qualifier. Right now, I have Duke out, and it's due mostly to the lower RPI, it's record, and the losses to Harvard, Richmond, UNC, and Air Force.

I should note, that I selected the automatic qualifiers based on conference leaders. In the case of ties, I gave the team with the higher RPI the nod. It should be noted that Marquette is actually leading the Big East right now over Denver.

I put together a neat spreadsheet and analyzed all the data available, but there is certainly plenty to disagree with, so check it out and let me know what you think.

Projected AQs:

ACC: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

AmEast: Albany Great Danes

Big East: Marquette Golden Eagles

Big Ten: Maryland Terrapins

Colonial: Towson Tigers

Ivy: Yale Bulldogs

Metro: Quinnipiac Bobcats

Northeast: Saint Joseph's Hawks

Patriot: Navy Midshipmen

SoCon: Air Force Falcons


Providence, RI

#1 Yale/Ivy vs. Towson/Colonial or Saint Joseph's/Northeast

#8 Villanova vs. Syracuse

Providence, RI

#4 Maryland/Big Ten vs. Stony Brook

#5 Brown vs. Navy/Patriot

Columbus, OH

#3 Notre Dame/ACC vs. Marquette/Big East

#6 Albany/AmEast vs. Penn State

Columbus, OH

#2 Denver vs. Air Force/SoCon or Quinnipiac/Metro Atlantic

#7 Johns Hopkins vs. Loyola

Next out: Stony Brook, Marquette, Navy, Penn State

Next in: Duke, UNC, Rutgers, Bryant