Syracuse Lacrosse: Is the ACC Overrated?

Since the evolution of the new ACC, it's been known as the premier conference for lacrosse. Yet after several uncanny, non-conference losses this season, there has been a lot of talk about how the ACC is overrated. Heading into the season, the polls held the Conference in high regard with all five ACC programs in the top ten. At the midway point in the season though, only Syracuse and Notre Dame remain in the top ten.

From where I stand, I can't argue that there have been some bad losses for the Conference, but I'm not ready to buy into the overrated hype. Below, I take a quick look at each team's performance through March 24, where I expect each program to end up, preseason media quotes about each squad, and a quick summary on whether or not I would regard the team as overrated. I guess you could count this as a mid-season progress report of sorts.

Team	Preseason Ranking	Current Ranking
Notre Dame	#1	#2
Duke	#3	#11
Syracuse	#5	#5
Virginia	#7	N/R
North Carolina	#8	#12

Team	2016 Record	2015 Record
Duke	6-4	6-2
North Carolina	5-3	9-1
Notre Dame	5-1	5-1
Syracuse	5-1	7-0
Virginia	3-5	6-2
	24-14	33-6

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Past

Notre Dame is 5-1 on the year. The Irish have a quality win against Maryland, but it took overtime to beat Virginia. You can only ask a program to beat the teams in front of it, but  the margin of victory versus Georgetown and Bellarmine was a little thin. Otherwise, there is not much to quibble about.

Future

As the ACC's top dog, Notre Dame, is good, but beatable. That being said, I expect the Irish to finish out the season with at least five wins out of its final six games. The Irish have just one quality win but certainly pass the eye test. I believe that UND will get the second seed in the NCAA Tournament behind Denver.

Preseason Media Quotes

"Guys buy into their roles, do them well, and run themselves ragged in the name of the golden dome. This atmosphere has the program sniffing a national title like never before."

- Connor Wilson, LaxAllStars.com

"Talent? Check. Experience? Check. Motivation? Check. Notre Dame has all the tools to make a deep tournament run possible, including perhaps its first national championship."

- Patrick Stevens, Laxmagazine.com

"The Irish bring back another stacked team. The defense remains intact and the attack grouping will once again feature several familiar names. I don't know if Notre Dame will win the 2016 National Championship but I am confident the Irish will take the ACC crown this year."

- Jim Simmons, TNIAAM

Overrated?

The quote from Patrick Stevens' preview of Notre Dame sums this team up best. Underrated? No. Overrated? No. This program is exactly where it was expected to be, on top.

Syracuse Orange

Past

Syracuse also sits at 5-1 after an overtime loss at Johns Hopkins. Just like Notre Dame, SU only beat UVA by one goal. The Orange demolished Siena, St. John's, and a solid Albany squad. In addition, the ‘Cuse beat Army by a goal, a team that may be flying somewhat under the radar.

Future

It's very possible Syracuse will lose the next two games versus Duke and Notre Dame, but win its final five games. I see the Orange ending its regular season 10-3 and picking up one of the top five seeds in the NCAAT. SU certainly has the offensive ability and with this year's addition of Nick Mellen, its defense is getting better with each game. I am worried about Warren Hill and Ben Williams. Williams is one of the best faceoff guys in the country, no doubt. That said, the Hopkins game has made me a bit nervous. Against Hopkins, Williams went 9-4 in the first half but went 4-6 in the second half. Like I said though, one of the best in lacrosse. As for Warren Hill, if you follow me on twitter, then you know I am not the biggest fan. He has been good this season, but he has had trouble seeing the ball and getting his stick in the right position (prime example being the UVA game). The Orange have a pretty good resume thus far and are part of that middling, top-10 group of teams.

Preseason Media Quotes

"If Williams is dominant again and Hill provides some stellar play between the pipes, the offense will be afforded some time to develop. This could be a year Desko mixes and matches offensive personnel, but bank on Syracuse being dangerous when it counts."

- Patrick Stevens, Laxmagazine.com

"Even if you add in more games on the road, this could be a huge positive for the Orange's season. Couple that with new indoor practice facilities, a strong roster, and some of the best minds in the game, and you have a sleeping monster of potential. For now, that's all it is, and the Orange will once again need to prove they are truly one of the elite programs in college lacrosse. It's an annual challenge for ANY elite D1 program, but Cuse seems particularly well suited to deal with it in 2016."

- Connor Wilson, LaxAllStars.com

"But there are holes in the midfield, defense and goal that need to be addressed."

- Edward Lee, Baltimore Sun

Overrated?

This year's Syracuse squad had a lot of questions coming into the season, and the Baltimore Sun named SU as its ACC "Team on the decline" due to these potential holes. Otherwise, the expectations for Syracuse were hesitantly positive. Remember, entering the year, Nick Piroli, Nick Mariano, Nick Mellen and Warren Hill were still somewhat unknown quantities. Heck, no one even knew who would be playing attack or the third pole. The Nicks have been fantastic, even with Piroli being injured he showed serious ability, Barber has stepped up big, the defense has come together, and taking away an overtime goal by Hopkins standout Ryan Brown, this is an undefeated team. I think calling SU overrated is actually going in the wrong direction. So far, I think the Orange have proven themselves to be somewhat underrated.

Duke Blue Devils

Past

Through five games, Duke was looking pretty good. The Blue devils destroyed High Point, Lehigh, Jacksonville, and Mercer while falling at Denver 12-14. Then came the month of March. Duke lost to, what was then, a respectable Harvard team to start the month. Since that game, Harvard has moved on to four straight losses against Bryant, Penn State, Brown, and Boston University. Two days later, Duke fell at home to Richmond by two goals. After decisive wins at Loyola and against Georgetown, the Blue Devils lost at home to Air Force in overtime. The Falcons are now 7-2 with a one goal loss against Denver.

Future

Duke has four straight ACC matchups coming down the pike as well as two out-of-conference games. I would like to say that I believe Duke will finish the final stretch of its season going 5-1, but I'm not very confident. I think Duke loses at least one of these ACC matchups but possibly two. The Marquette game should be a win but I don't know about the final game versus a 7-2 Boston University. I do think Duke makes the Tournament, but only because of a weakened field. However, I think the Blue Devils may not be seeded.

Preseason Media Quotes

"The Blue Devils will score plenty, and if they can just slow teams down a bit, they might take their fourth Memorial Day victory lap in seven years."

- Patrick Stevens, Laxmagazine.com

"Duke should start off good, if they continue to improve like they do most years, this group could be exceptional by season's end."

- Connor Wilson, LaxAllStars.com

"Duke does have to replace five major contributors, including first-team All-American short-stick defensive midfielder Will Haus. But if any team is poised to fill in the gaps and thrive, it's the Blue Devils under coach John Danowski"

- Edward Lee, Baltimore Sun

"...this Blue Devil squad is a safe bet to begin a new Championship Weekend streak."

- Inside Lacrosse Faceoff Yearbook

"The Dukies are a lock for that second spot in the ACC."

- Jim Simmons, TNIAAM

Overrated?

Judging by the preseason comments, there were high expectations for this year's Duke squad. But I think those expectations still have a strong chance of coming to fruition. The next three games will certainly set the tone for the rest of the season. I still think it's a little early to call this Duke team overrated as there is still plenty of time to beef up the post-season resume.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Past

The only quality win for UNC came against Johns Hopkins back in the end of February. The other four wins are nothing special, at all. In fact, Carolina sits at #21 in RPI and the combined record from the opponents it has beaten is a measly 14-24. While a one goal loss against Denver is not bad, the five goal losses to Hofstra and at UMass are not good.

Future

The Tar Heels are 5-3 overall, but have a very tough final five games left with Maryland, Duke, UVA, Syracuse, and Notre Dame remaining. This is a hard team to project. I think UNC beats Maryland, and definitely loses to Notre Dame. After that it's completely up in the air. UNC's April 10^th date with Virginia could be the defacto play-in game for the ACC Tournament. If the Heels get into the Conference Tournament, I think they have a shot at the NCAAT, but if UNC falls to UVA and then loses to Brown in the ACC-Brown Classic they're out.

Preseason Media Quotes

"North Carolina lost its biggest names, but it isn't bereft of talent. A more anonymous Tar Heel team will navigate this season, and should it answer some obvious offensive questions, it will be in the mix come mid-May and have the potential to make some postseason noise."

- Patrick Stevens, Laxmagazine.com

"UNC will have some figuring out to do this year on attack."

- Connor Wilson, LaxAllStars.com

"The Tar heels said goodbye to stars Joey Sankey and Jimmy Bitter, but - as every DI coach will tell you - there's a ton of talent waiting in the wings. The Carolina identity may shift to the defensive end early, paced by star Austin Pifani."

- Inside Lacrosse Faceoff Yearbook

"Will this be the year that UNC can break through and make it to Championship Weekend? I have to think the answer is no. The Heels have some big holes, especially on offense."

- Jim Simmons, TNIAAM

Overrated?

The Tar Heels lost a lot of talent coming into the season, and the pundits definitely pointed that out. Still though, Carolina has been able to hold the seventh best scoring offense in the country. Nevertheless, five goals against Hofstra and nine against UMass won't do the job. While the preseason polls held UNC in high regard, I don't think expectations were that UNC would win the National Championship or even make it to Championship Weekend. Yes, the Heels are overrated, but just like with Duke, there is still time remaining on the clock to fix this mess.

Virginia Cavaliers

Past

Then there is Virginia. At 3-5, the Cavs do not have a good win to pin it's post season hopes to. The 4-11 loss to Loyola set the tone for the season. After a seven goal win at Drexel, UVA fell at home to High Point. Virginia went on to beat Penn, fall to Syracuse and beat St. Joseph's by a goal. In the last two games, Virginia lost to Cornell by four goals and then Notre Dame by a goal. While UVA has a losing record, the bright spot is that the Cavs are 1-3 in its four one-goal games.

Future

I don't believe Virginia makes the post-season. I also don't believe that UVA will finish with a winning record. I think the absolute best case scenario would be wins over Johns Hopkins, VMI, Richmond, UNC, and Georgetown to finish out the season. I couldn't be more underwhelmed by UVA this year.

Preseason Media Quotes

"However I don't think the Wahoos are destined to spend a lot of 2016 in the gutter, even if they only carry six true attackmen on their roster."

- Connor Wilson, LaxAllStars.com

"Virginia has what it takes to win the ACC this year if they stay healthy."

- Connor Wilson, LaxAllStars.com

"It's hard to believe Virginia's gone four years without playing on the season's final weekend. If the defense gels, that drought could come to an end this May."

- Patrick Stevens, Laxmagazine.com

"However, this could be the year that the Hoos bounce back. Even though I have UVA listed as the last team in my ACC rankings, I expect the Cavs to make the NCAA Tournament and have an outside shot at making the NCAA Final Four."

- Jim Simmons, TNIAAM

Overrated?

Edward Lee of the Baltimore Sun named Virginia as his "Team on the rise." That has not been the case thus far. It was widely thought the UVA would bounce back this year, but the Virginia defense has not been improved from 2015. The Cavs are the 43^rd worst team in the nation for scoring defense and are near the bottom in the nation in man-down defense. In net, Matt Barrett has looked more like the goalie that gave up 16 goals with zero saves in the 2015 NCAA quarterfinals loss than the standout netminder that showed up in the last year's regular season. Given the high hopes for this team, it is easy to conclude that the 2016 Virginia Cavaliers were overrated coming into the season.

Syracuse will travel to Durham, NC on Saturday at noon to take on the Duke Blue Devils. The game will be broadcast on ESPNU and can be heard on TK99. Of course you can also follow me @Orangelax for game updates.