There are a lot of assumptions involved in the bracketology at this point, so take this with a grain of salt, because as we all know there is nothing predictable in NCAA lacrosse.Two good sources to keep tabs on for bracketology purposes are the guys over at CollegeCrosse.com and Corey McLaughlin at laxmagazine.com.
Things to Know About the Selection Process
- All 10 conferences have automatic qualifiers this year.
- 18 teams will make the NCAA Tournament.
- There are two play-in games. The four conference champions with the lowest RPI rankings get placed into the play-in games.
- Non-seeded teams (teams that do not get a no. 1-8 seed) are placed with geographic consideration. Additionally, the Committee tries its best to avoid first round, in-conference matchups.
- An at-large bid cannot go to a team with a sub .500 record.
- Navy and Denver are hosting, so if those two make it into the Tournament they will have home games.
Projected Conference Winners
Projected conference winners are the #1 seeds for the conference tournament. Teams in Bold have already won its conference title.
ACC: Syracuse Orange; AmEast: Albany; Big East: Denver; Big Ten: Johns Hopkins; Colonial: Fairfield; Ivy: Brown; MAAC: Marist; NEC: Saint Joseph's; Patriot: Colgate; Southern: Richmond
Jim's Eight At-Large Bids
Notre Dame, UNC, Duke, UVA, Yale, Ohio State, Cornell, Maryland
Last Four In
Ohio State, Yale, Cornell, UVA
First Four Out
Princeton, Georgetown, Marquette, Loyola
Johns Hopkins
I've been getting a lot of questions about whether or not I think the Jays will make the NCAAT. If JHU wins the Big Ten, Maryland will get an at-large, possibly taking away an at-large from Georgetown, Princeton or even Ohio State. If Hopkins does not win its first round game against the Penn State Nittany Lions then I think they're out of the Tourney. If the Jays lose in the finals to Maryland, then I think they will still miss because Ohio State has the head-to-head win over Hopkins.
Jim's Projected Bracket
Bubble Teams
Team |
SOS |
RPI |
Top 5 (RPI) Wins |
Top 10 |
Top 20 |
Losses to Teams Outside Top 20 |
Brown |
39 |
11 |
- |
Cornell |
Princeton, Harvard |
Bucknell, Penn |
Georgetown |
11 |
14 |
- |
- |
Marquette, Loyola |
Towson |
Loyola |
7 |
20 |
- |
- |
Navy |
Bucknell, Holy Cross, Army |
Hopkins |
6 |
13 |
- |
Maryland |
Navy |
Towson |
Marquette |
20 |
15 |
- |
- |
Ohio State |
Bellarmine |
Cornell |
9 |
8 |
- |
Colgate, Albany |
Yale, Princeton |
- |
Ohio State |
22 |
16 |
Denver |
- |
Hopkins |
Detroit, Rutgers |
Yale |
29 |
12 |
- |
Maryland |
Brown |
- |
Virginia |
5 |
6 |
- |
Cornell |
Georgetown, Hopkins, Loyola |
- |
Navy |
25 |
19 |
- |
Colgate |
- |
Bucknell, Army |
Princeton |
18 |
17 |
- |
- |
Hopkins, Harvard, Yale |
Lehigh, Stony Brook |
Conference Breakdown
ACC
Conference Leader: Syracuse Orange
Locks: Notre Dame, North Carolina Tar Heels, Syracuse Orange, Virginia Cavaliers, Duke Blue Devils
Bubble Teams: N/A
- The ACC will get all five teams in, and I expect SU to take the no. 1 overall seed. The Orange would pretty much have to lose to Colgate this week in order to hand off the top seed to Notre Dame.
AmEast
Conference Leader: Albany Great Danes
Locks: Albany
Bubble Teams: None
- The America East Conference leader is currently the Albany Great Danes. Stony Brook and Albany should meet in the conference championship game. There is a possibility that the Seawolves win the conference. If that's the case then it will screw Ohio State or maybe Johns Hopkins; someone's bubble will get burst in that case.
- I don't think Albany gets seeded, instead I think this team will go on the road which means big trouble for whichever team has to play them first round.
Big East
Conference Leader: Denver Pioneers
Locks: Denver
Bubble Teams: Marquette Golden Eagles, Georgetown Hoyas
- Marquette's big problem is that it lost the head-to-head with Georgetown. I think the Hoyas are the big question in terms of bubble teams. For me, that eighth at-large comes down to Ohio State, Hopkins, and Georgetown, but I think OSU has the edge.
Big Ten
Conference Leader: Johns Hopkins Blue Jays
Locks: Maryland Terrapins
Bubble Teams: Ohio State Buckeyes, Johns Hopkins
- There is a chance that OSU can take the B1G crown. However, Ohio State will have to play Maryland in the No. 2/3 matchup of the Big Ten semis.
- Hopkins took down Maryland last week, and will face Penn State in its semifinals game. Hopkins actually has a decent at-large resume, so watch out this could get interesting with them. Like I said earlier, a loss to Penn State and Hopkins is out of the NCAAs.
Colonial
Conference Leader: Fairfield Stags
Locks: None
Bubble Teams: None
- I thought Towson was a possible bubble team last week, but after two straight losses, that bubble has burst.
Ivy
Conference Leader: Brown Bears
Locks: Cornell Big Red, Brown Bears
Bubble Teams: Brown Bears, Cornell Big Red, Princeton Tigers, Yale Bulldogs
- I think Brown and Cornell are locks to make the NCAAs. Without an Ivy League Championship, Princeton could find itself on the outside looking in. If both have to rely on at-large bids, I am 95 percent confident that Yale will make it over Princeton.
- If Princeton wins the Ivy League Tournament, then I think all four Ivy teams make it in.
MAAC
Conference Leader: Marist Red Foxes
Locks: None
Bubble Teams: None
- It is win the AQ-or-go-home in the MAAC.
Northeast
Conference Leader: Saint Joseph's Hawks
Locks: None
Bubble Teams: None
- The Northeast is weak. It will come down to Hobart vs. Saint Joseph's in the NEC Championship game.
Patriot
Conference Winner: Colgate Raiders
Locks: None
Bubble Teams: None
- I think Colgate is the only Patriot League team to make it. I know that there were several bubble teams last week, but the way things are working out, I think the league is done.
Southern
Conference Leader: Richmond Spiders
Locks: None
Bubble Teams: None
- Richmond should probably win the conference and be sent to the slaughter in the NCAA Tournament.
The Orange will visit Colgate on Saturday at 3:30. The game can be seen on the CBS Sports Network and heard on WTKW 99.5 FM. Of course you can also follow me @Orangelax for updates throughout the game.