(Click to embiggen.) Let's call it a toss up between Syracuse and Florida State with the Noles -- TALKIN' 'BOUT THE NOLES! -- giving three by virtue of being the home team. Interestingly, Syracuse's win projection ceiling rightthisverysecond is basically where it was on February 4th. What that means is probably a different story for a different day.
(Click here to embiggen.) Syracuse's loss to Pittsburgh in the Dome did the Orange no favors: Syracuse's ceiling was projected at 20 wins when it entered last weekend's date with the Panthers; following the weekend, the Orange are clocking in at 19 likely victories. N.C. State still remains a strong win opportunity and North Carolina looks like an abysmal evening, but hope remains for 20 buckets with a trip to Tallahassee in what is looking more and more like a toss-up game.
(Click to embiggen.) Syracuse's demolition of Florida State after a long layoff merited the Orange about a half-win increase to the team's ceiling according to five basketball computers. With three likely wins positioned in Syracuse's windshield (at Boston College, Pittsburgh, and N.C. State), two uphill climbs (at Louisville and at North Carolina), and what is bending toward a toss-up (at Florida State), the Orange are in decent shape to tally 20 wins and 10 conference victories prior to the start of the ACC Tournament. You can take the rest of the day off from work to celebrate. Tell your boss I said it was okay.
A quick update from last week. Syracuse's three wins in the last seven days have merited the Orange about a one-win increase to the team's projected ceiling, with Monte Carlo simulations still placing the team's eventual regular season win total between 19 and 20 wins. Three games look, on a more likely than not basis, like wins, with two others likely falling into the sadness column. Pittsburgh's visit to the Dome and the trip to Florida State smell like toss-up games, although the five measures considered have somewhat different feelings about those two dates. Click here to embiggen.
Not much has changed since last week's update. Sweeping the home stand and clobbering Boston College puts Syracuse in a decent position, but there are still three uphill climbs and two potential landmines -- Notre Dame and Pittsburgh -- out there. Click here to embiggen.
If you're looking for an additional illustration of where Syracuse sits relative to its upcoming final 11 opponents, this should help. A couple of gimmies, a couple of long odds, and a few toss up-like games. Right now a Monte Carlo simulation has Syracuse ending the regular season right around 19 wins. Click here to embiggen.