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Syracuse football: Orange projected to have easiest Power 4 schedule in 2024

Breaking down where Syracuse ranks in ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index.

By Dominic Chiappone
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Pittsburgh v Syracuse Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

We've discussed how the Syracuse Orange football team have an enticing schedule lined up in coach Fran Brown’s first year. According to the "Worldwide Leader in Sports", it's actually the easiest among all Power Four schools.

The Orange currently rank No. 82 among all teams in strength of schedule, according to ESPN’s preseason edition of its 2024 College Football Power Index. That's the highest ranking among all teams in the ACC, SEC, Big Ten and Big 12.

ACC teams Syracuse is currently behind in the metric include Virginia Tech (No. 79), North Carolina (No. 75) and SMU (No. 73).

In 2024, Syracuse will kickoff its season versus Ohio and play non-conference games versus Holy Cross (home), UNLV (road) and UConn (home). Against the ACC, the Orange will play Georgia Tech, Stanford, Virginia Tech and Miami (FL) at home and travel for road games against NC State, Pittsburgh, Boston College and Cal.

Out of the 134 FBS teams, Syracuse currently sits at No. 70 overall in ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index which ranks 15th in the ACC. Florida State (No. 11), Clemson (No. 15), Louisville (No. 21), Miami (No. 23) and SMU (No. 25) all ranked in the top-25 in ESPN’s preseason FPI.

Syracuse is only projected to play two teams ranked No. 30 or better in ESPN’s FPI (Miami at No. 23 and NC State at No. 28). Eight of Syracuse’s 12 opponents (not counting FCS Holy Cross) are ranked No. 50 or worse in the FPI.

Here is a breakdown of Syracuse’s 2024 schedule using the ESPN data:

Syracuse’s 2024 schedule by the numbers

Opponent FPI Rank 6WINS% PLAYOFF%
Opponent FPI Rank 6WINS% PLAYOFF%
Ohio (home) 113 63% 0.90%
Georgia Tech (home) 54 37% 1.50%
Stanford (home) 59 43% 1%
Holy Cross (home) - - -
UNLV (road) 86 53% 1.30%
NC State (road) 28 91% 14%
Pittsburgh (road) 53 66% 3%
Virginia Tech (home) 50 69% 4%
Boston College (road) 58 52% 1.50%
California (road) 43 71% 5%
UConn (home) 110 53% 0.30%
Miami (home) 23 90% 18%
All stats and information according to ESPN’s 2024 preseason College Football Power Index.

Looking at Syracuse’s standing within the ACC, one interesting thing to note is that ESPN’s projections appear to be way lower on the Orange compared to what the betting markets are predicting.

For example, in ESPN’s projected win-loss record metric has Syracuse at 5.8-6.2 — essentially a .500-level team. That is currently just 12th-best in the ACC. For context, DraftKings has the Orange’s over-under win total line set at 7 which is ninth-best in the conference.

Florida State (26%) is the early favorite to win the ACC followed by Clemson (19%), Louisville (12%), Miami (10%) and SMU (9%), according to ESPN’s FPI.

Syracuse’s preseason projections compared to the ACC

ACC Team FPI Rank PROJ W-L WIN CONF% PLAYOFF%
ACC Team FPI Rank PROJ W-L WIN CONF% PLAYOFF%
Florida State 11 8.8-3.6 26% 36%
Clemson 15 8.5-3.8 19% 27%
Louisville 21 7.9-4.3 12% 18%
Miami (FL) 23 8.2-4.0 10% 18%
SMU 25 8.3-3.9 9% 17%
NC State 28 8.1-4.1 <5% 14%
North Carolina 42 7.5-4.6 <5% 8%
California 43 6.6-5.5 <5% 5%
Virginia Tech 50 6.6-5.5 <5% <5%
Duke 52 6.1-6.0 <5% <5%
Pittsburgh 53 6.4-5.7 <5% <5%
Georgia Tech 54 4.9-7.2 <5% <5%
Boston College 58 5.6-6.4 <5% <5%
Stanford 59 5.2-6.9 <5% <5%
Syracuse 70 5.8-6.2 <5% <5%
Wake Forest 71 5.3-6.8 <5% <5%
Virginia 72 4.6-7.4 <5% <5%
All stats and information according to ESPN’s 2024 preseason College Football Power Index.

The last magic number to watch for is 56.1% — the Orange’s current preseason probability to clinch a bowl game in 2024.

Now it’s your turn: what are your thoughts on the Orange’s projections from ESPN? Where do you think Syracuse stacks up in comparison to the rest of the new-look ACC?

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