If you were paying attention yesterday, we’re diving into some “what ifs” this week as part of SB Nation’s network-wide initiative doing so.
Now “what ifs” aren’t new for this group. We actually explore them all the time, so the concept isn’t really new for us. However, we’ve taken this week as an opportunity to tread some new ground and look at changes in the margins that could have major repercussions for the Syracuse Orange.
This time around, we wanted to focus on realignment. But rather than looking at the well-worn “what if Syracuse left for the ACC back in 2004?” question, we ask:
What if the ACC added Connecticut instead of Louisville?
As you may remember, things were great after Syracuse and Pitt were announced as new members of the ACC. Notre Dame joined a little while after, and everything seemed pretty awesome in our new home.
And then it didn’t. Before we even officially showed, up, Maryland announced it was leaving the ACC for the Big Ten, and Rutgers was tossed in because NeW yOrK mArKeT. That favorite old frenzy of superconferences was back, and the ACC was in the crosshairs of both the Big Ten and Big 12 (and maybe the SEC too if things really went to hell).
The decision around who replaced Maryland was a big one for the ACC, who could’ve potentially lost football-first schools like Clemson and Florida State if they picked wrong. We know now they opted for Louisville over UConn (thanks, old lawsuits!), and things worked out. But what if the basketball powers opted to thumb their collective noses at UL’s academics and opt for the Huskies?
To me, this creates two branch timelines, which we can explore below:
Option 1: Everyone in the ACC stays put
Here, you just plug UConn in for Louisville and go about your day.
But the football product is worse as a whole, and not having Louisville actually makes the ACC a tougher sell on the network side. Subbing out the Cards for UConn helps Syracuse out a bit, with some more assured wins. That means bowling in 2019, and five wins in 2017 and 2015 — and maybe more in the latter year since that means Eric Dungey doesn’t get hurt. Maybe 2014 doesn’t become a complete train wreck too, since Terrel Hunt was knocked out vs. the Cards that season. We played UConn anyway in 2016, but removing Louisville means SU doesn’t get posterized by Lamar Jackson and play in every highlight reel ‘til the end of time.
For the rest of the Atlantic, it’s easier to hit six wins with UConn on board, but it also probably leads to divisional realignment since no Coastal team is a bodybag. The Atlantic would also have several relative lightweights in SU, BC, Wake and the Huskies. Not exactly balanced — so maybe it leads to the change we’ve actually been looking for.
Basketball-wise, this alters things a little differently.
Syracuse would face UConn and Boston College twice annually, and get more exposure in the Northeast. Unlike what happened in real life, the Huskies’ men’s basketball program wouldn’t be neutered by being in a lesser league away from the area it’s traditional gotten talent from (New York). Perhaps Connecticut being in the ACC leads to SU’s demise. There’s a chance it just makes recruiting a little tougher. Or maybe pushes both programs higher since they don’t lose a foothold in New York (the way both sort of have without the Big East).
Because Louisville’s succeeded since arriving, I’m tempted to say this is a net-loss, however. And that’s before we even get into option 2.
Option 2: Football schools get fed up with ACC
Adding UConn instead of Louisville could’ve also been the nuclear option. After football-focused additions like Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College in the first round of realignment, the ACC added more basketball-focused brands like SU and Pitt. Louisville was seen as a compromise between the two, but with more football upside than alternatives. UConn would be a clear basketball addition.
There’s a chance that’s enough of a wedge to drive Florida State and Clemson off to the Big 12, bringing Miami with them. The Big Ten probably adds Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia Tech as a way to stave off potential future demise by tapping into Southern markets.
The SEC tacks on Virginia Tech and NC State. Notre Dame joins the Big Ten as an affiliate member for all sports but football.
What you’re left with is an unfortunate amalgamation of squads: Syracuse, Pitt, UConn, BC and Wake Forest. Those first four have an easy home in the Big East, and the league likely brings them all back with a hefty penalty. Wake’s sort of screwed, but maybe the Big East throws them a bone here.
That doesn’t tell us anything about football, though, as only 4-5 Big East schools would sponsor the sport at the FBS level. BC, Pitt and SU would go independent and flail for a bit. UConn would close up shop. Wake would drop to FCS.
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That’s a long way of saying both of these options are not ideal compared to what we got. But what do you think? Am I writing off the UConn possibility a bit too quickly? Share your own hypothetical below.