Way-too-early Syracuse football betting guide

The year 2019 is going to bring a lot of changes, and one of the most anticipated is the legalization of sports gambling. Turning Stone announced that it will be providing sports betting through Caesars, and joins Del Lago and Tioga Downs in offering CNY sports gambling.

Naturally, a bunch of the action at these casinos will be based on Syracuse Orange sports, and with these sports books coming sometime this year, football will be a hot item. Here are some way too early betting guides from us degenerates at TNIAAM based on common offerings.

Syracuse Win Total: Projected Over/Under 8

The usual best line to bet, o/u win totals are bread-and-butter at sports books. Usually, a number gets set and you get payout odds based on which side early money goes. For example, Vegas set ‘Cuse’s 2018 number at 4.5, and most bettors intelligently took the over in a heartbeat, leading to a -110 bet on most future under bets.

For 2019, I don’t think oddsmakers make the same mistake. ‘Cuse’s schedule includes four winnable non-conference games — at Liberty, at Maryland, Western Michigan and Holy Cross — with a manageable home conference slate that should result in six wins, comfortably. The real question comes from how the Orange do on the road versus less-than-stellar Florida State and Louisville programs and whatever the heck Duke is in 2019.

Andy’s Advice: I’d take anything where 8 wins is my target mark (which is why I think the number will be 8 even). ‘Cuse should go 4-0 in non-conference play, and win 3 of their 4 home conference games. There are 2 tough road games (Duke/FSU) and a coin flip road game (Lville) that swing this season from 7-9 wins. If enough bullish betting can push this number to 8.5, take the under and run. If Vegas is dumb like last year and sets it at 6, hand in your bet and know that investment will look great come December.

Kevin’s Advice: I’d take the over on 8 wins as looking at the schedule I have Syracuse going 4-0 in OOC games then 2-2 in ACC road games leaving them to be 3-1 in the ACC home games for a 9-3 record heading into the bowl game. While I’m worried about the lines I think there is more talent at the skill positions on offense and in the defensive backfield to keep the Orange from stepping back in 2019.

John’s Advice: A push is the most likely outcome — also, hate even O/U marks. But I’ll go with the under in case the ACC improves far more than we’re suspecting it will. Florida State clearly has talent, and Duke should be good even without Daniel Jones. Pitt, NC State, Wake Forest and Boston College remain toss-ups, but we went 3-1 against that group last year. Can we do so again? We also have to assume a little regression from the offensive line and linebackers. Even going “under” still means as many as seven wins, however.

Syracuse to Win ACC: Projected +1200

Athlon Sports is the only one with a Way Too Early 2019 Top 25 out right now, but it sets a model for what many will follow up with by the time these kinds of lines are officially set. ‘Cuse is one of 4 ACC teams mentioned, with only Virginia Tech and Clemson making the rankings. (The Orange and Virginia get honorable mentions), meaning ‘Cuse won’t be a +10000 long shot like they were this year. That being said, Clemson is still a thing.

Andy’s Advice: As mentioned above, the Syracuse schedule is manageable, especially with Clemson coming to the Dome. But right now? I can’t see Tommy DeVito or the defense taking the steps necessary to get ‘Cuse to a level where they can win all of the games they’ll need to to make the Championship game and then follow through. Worth a lottery ticket bet just on the fact that you’ll get rewarded with a decent payout.

John’s Advice: Clemson still exists in this scenario, right?

Syracuse to Win ACC Atlantic: +400

Here’s a much more appealing bet. Last season, the projected second best Atlantic team was looking at +750 to win the conference outright (Florida State) so halve that for the Atlantic for a +375. I don’t think oddsmakers view ‘Cuse as a power the way they assumed the ‘Noles would return to, but the Orange’s schedule helps out a lot. This is a much more appealing bet to make, but still a lottery ticket.

Andy’s Advice: Make the bet before any ‘Cuse-Clemson contest. There’s rumors that the matchup could be early in the season, and if that’s the case, a ‘Cuse win would dramatically swing lines towards ‘Cuse as the conference favorite. See how the Orange handles WMU at home and go from there.

John’s Advice: Noooope.