/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/54186283/usa_today_9514905.0.jpg)
I don’t think I’m alone in this, but I’m cautiously (if not at times outright giddily) optimistic about Syracuse football’s chances for success in 2017. The schedule isn’t great, but the team is returning a lot of starters and talent at key positions on the offensive side of the ball.
Anecdotally, most people buy into the idea that when a drastic change comes over a program stylistically, year two is almost always better than year one. I don't like dealing in anecdotes, I like dealing in stats. So, I took the top ten teams in total plays run from scrimmage this past year, found that coach’s first and second seasons with the team, and compared offensive numbers. (Thanks CFB Stats.) Pretty straight forward, huh? Well..
Untitled
Team | Coach | Year 1 Plays From Scrimmage | Y1Total Yards | Y1Yards/Play | Y1Yards/Game | Year 2 Plays | Y2 Total Yards | Y2 Yards/Play | Y2 Yards/Game |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Coach | Year 1 Plays From Scrimmage | Y1Total Yards | Y1Yards/Play | Y1Yards/Game | Year 2 Plays | Y2 Total Yards | Y2 Yards/Play | Y2 Yards/Game |
Clemson | Dabo | 886 | 5073 | 5.73 | 362.4 | 865 | 4349 | 5.03 | 334.5 |
Tulsa | Philip Montgomery | 1083 | 6596 | 6.09 | 507.4 | 1114 | 6851 | 6.15 | 527 |
Baylor | Art Briles | 771 | 4517 | 5.86 | 376.4 | 777 | 4115 | 5.3 | 342.9 |
Colorado | Mike MacIntyre | 832 | 4439 | 5.34 | 369.9 | 996 | 5270 | 5.29 | 439.2 |
Virginia Tech | Justin Fuente | ||||||||
Houston | Tom Herman | 1011 | 6778 | 6.16 | 484.1 | 1084 | 5764 | 5.32 | 443.4 |
Alabama | Nick Saban | 4859 | 374 | 902 | 4981 | 5.52 | 355.8 | ||
Texas Tech | Kliff Kingsbury | 1135 | 6639 | 5.85 | 510.7 | 914 | 6049 | 6.62 | 504.1 |
Cal | Sonny Dykes | 1046 | 5442 | 5.2 | 453.5 | 975 | 5942 | 6.09 | 495.2 |
Washington State | Mike Leach | 876 | 4314 | 4.92 | 359.5 | 999 | 5478 | 5.48 | 421.4 |
Babers BGSU | 1103 | 6061 | 5.5 | 432.9 | 1136 | 7655 | 6.74 | 546.8 | |
Babers EIllinois | 1011 | 5651 | 5.6 | 470.9 | 1120 | 7742 | 6.9 | 595.5 | |
Babers Cuse | 971 | 5290 | 5.45 | 440.8 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
Some notes:
- I excluded Virginia Tech because this was Fuente’s first year.
- Alabama doesn’t have a nice and tidy list of 2007 stats available. They just got a website redesign and it’s 11 p.m. on the East Coast, so shrug emoji. Besides, we know they’re good
- I included Babers’s last two stops because, well, that’s what I would’ve asked for in the comments.
As you can see, there is generally some kind of change, either slightly positive or slightly negative. No one really stands out besides, well, Dino. Each time he takes over, there is a dramatic change with his offense in year two.
So, let’s dig a little deeper. Quality over quantity. I then took the same team/year list, but looked up S&P+ in year one and year two. From Football Outsiders, S&P+ is one of my favorite football evaluative stats. It takes Bill Connelly’s Five Factors and takes into account a team’s offensive/defensive efficiency and explosiveness, two really key components in a good up tempo offense. The + means that it is representative of the scoring curve of all teams that season. (Think ERA+/OPS+ in baseball.) With all of that out of the way...
Untitled
Team | Year 1 OS&P+ | Year 2 OS&P+ |
---|---|---|
Team | Year 1 OS&P+ | Year 2 OS&P+ |
Clemson | 29.4 | 26.2 |
Tulsa | 32.8 | 34.4 |
Baylor | 33 | 26.8 |
Colorado | 26 | 32.3 |
Houston | 34.1 | 28.9 |
Alabama | 26.2 | 32.3 |
Texas Tech | 32.4 | 37.1 |
Cal | 28.5 | 37 |
Washington State | 20.3 | 30.3 |
Babers BGSU | 26.4 | 41.4 |
Babers EIll | N/A | N/A |
We see that only 3 teams (Clemson, Baylor, & Houston) saw any decline in year two of their new shiny offensive toy. Most notably, Babers has the largest improvement of any coach I looked at while he was at Bowling Green.
While any team can see issues arise with injuries derail a season, the expectation is that we can expect Syracuse (5.45 Yards/Play, 31.5 S&P+) to improve upon their 2016 offense. That’s the standard with up tempo offenses, and especially so when you’re implementing BabersBall.