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National Signing Day is over and done with, as you well know. We took a look at where the Syracuse Orange were ranked versus other ACC programs yesterday -- but that was just for 2016. SB Nation's Bill Connelly, as you're certainly used to right now, took it several steps further in his own recruiting breakdown yesterday.
Of particular interest in that post, and to us, are the two- and five-year rankings trends -- indicating what direction a program could be heading in by way injecting young talent for a later payoff (two-year) and a full roster turnover (five-year). These inform his S&P+ projections, which are typically pretty accurate and have predicted such things as Syracuse's win over an unbeaten Louisville in 2012, among other notable outcomes.
Taking a look at just ACC teams here, we get a similarly positive outcome to what we witnessed yesterday. Further, however, Syracuse is also looking better from both a two- and five-year standpoint, respectively:
| Team | 2016 class | Rank | 5-year avg | Rank | Change in | 2-year avg | Rank | Change in |
| -2016 | 5-year Rk | -2016 | 2-year Rk | |||||
| Florida State | 97.70% | 5 | 96.30% | 3 | 0 | 96.30% | 3 | 0 |
| Clemson | 96.30% | 8 | 91.60% | 14 | 0 | 92.90% | 6 | 6 |
| Miami | 89.80% | 18 | 88.60% | 17 | 2 | 86.00% | 21 | -2 |
| North Carolina | 78.60% | 30 | 80.60% | 23 | -1 | 80.20% | 26 | -1 |
| Pittsburgh | 78.50% | 31 | 71.90% | 37 | 9 | 71.90% | 35 | 7 |
| Duke | 77.90% | 32 | 61.40% | 52 | 4 | 71.50% | 37 | 7 |
| Virginia Tech | 71.10% | 36 | 79.80% | 25 | 0 | 75.00% | 32 | -6 |
| Louisville | 67.30% | 43 | 69.70% | 39 | -5 | 69.10% | 39 | 6 |
| NC State | 61.40% | 49 | 64.00% | 47 | 4 | 64.30% | 45 | -6 |
| Syracuse | 56.70% | 53 | 50.80% | 63 | 5 | 51.70% | 59 | 1 |
| Georgia Tech | 55.50% | 55 | 65.10% | 45 | -3 | 62.20% | 48 | -11 |
| Wake Forest | 55.40% | 56 | 51.50% | 62 | 1 | 53.00% | 58 | 7 |
| Virginia | 44.60% | 65 | 63.90% | 48 | -11 | 51.10% | 62 | -19 |
| Boston College | 42.70% | 66 | 48.20% | 66 | -2 | 50.20% | 64 | -11 |
Observations on the above:
- If you're not a fan of doing the math, the five-year averages take us back to 2012, which was Doug Marrone's final class at Syracuse. The positive trend makes sense, since prior to that season, the program was still (even more so than now) getting a lot of out lesser recruits and rebuilding a gutted roster.
- Similar to what we said yesterday, Syracuse averaged out to the 10th-best class in the ACC.
- The Orange's five-year change of plus-5 is the second-highest jump in the conference, other than Pittsburgh's plus-9. These things are all relative, however. Jumping five spots in the 60s is not the same battle as nine in the 30s and 40s. And while Florida State and Clemson netted out at a zero gain... we're well aware that doesn't mean those programs are doomed since they're still recruiting at top-15 level.
- SU's also one of six ACC teams to trend up in the two-year rankings. Pitt and Louisville have obviously made some larger strides since the move from the Big East, and we've discussed Duke's meteoric rise in recruiting several times this week. Wake Forest's roster is starting to turn over to Dave Clawson's vision, and they have the plus-7 trend to show for it. Clemson's obviously elevated its recruiting level in recent seasons, which is how you get to the National Championship.
In the comments yesterday, Orangeman: Fighter of the Nightman also brought up another interesting comparison from these numbers: how Syracuse looks versus other Power Five schools with new coaches.
The 12 schools that made new hires obviously have different baseline standards, different challenges and other factors that explain some of these numbers. But for your perusal:
| Team | 2016 class | Rank | 5-year avg | Rank | Change in | 2-year avg | Rank | Change in |
| -2016 | 5-year Rk | -2016 | 2-year Rk | |||||
| USC | 97.70% | 3 | 97.50% | 2 | 0 | 96.40% | 2 | 0 |
| Georgia | 97.70% | 4 | 94.00% | 6 | 0 | 92.80% | 7 | 3 |
| Miami | 89.80% | 18 | 88.60% | 17 | 2 | 86.00% | 21 | -2 |
| South Carolina | 77.30% | 33 | 83.50% | 22 | -2 | 79.40% | 28 | -10 |
| Virginia Tech | 71.10% | 36 | 79.80% | 25 | 0 | 75.00% | 32 | -6 |
| Missouri | 68.60% | 40 | 73.00% | 33 | -3 | 73.60% | 34 | -3 |
| Maryland | 61.10% | 50 | 67.10% | 41 | 2 | 62.50% | 47 | -11 |
| Minnesota | 59.40% | 52 | 52.60% | 58 | 7 | 57.50% | 53 | 6 |
| Syracuse | 56.70% | 53 | 50.80% | 63 | 5 | 51.70% | 59 | 1 |
| Rutgers | 51.80% | 59 | 60.00% | 53 | -5 | 51.60% | 60 | 4 |
| Iowa State | 48.30% | 63 | 48.90% | 65 | 1 | 46.10% | 68 | -1 |
| Virginia | 44.60% | 65 | 63.90% | 48 | -11 | 51.10% | 62 | -19 |
It should come as little shock that a lot of these schools that changed coaches are in the lower half of P5 recruiting. Also:
- Syracuse was one of just four schools to improve its two-year ranking with a new head coach this offseason. Rutgers was another, which could just be a result of the Scarlet Knights' move from the Big East/AAC to the Big Ten (remember, they left a year later than SU).
- On the five-year scale, the only program of these 12 that improved more than the Orange was Minnesota.
- SU finishes ninth in this group looking at just 2016, but isn't too far off from seventh, either.
- Also notable is how much Syracuse has every excuse regarding a lack of local talent that Iowa State does, yet is outdoing the Cyclones of late, along with teams that are also in much more fertile recruiting states (Rutgers, Virginia).
***
So Syracuse did well enough in 2016, and if you look at the two- and five-year averages, the program is still trending positively. This is a good thing. It also means that despite the Orange's struggles of late, we're still not operating at the depths of a bunch of other Power Five programs, several of whom are also in the ACC. SB Nation's College Football feed did the honors of pointing out the worst P5 recruiting classes over the last two seasons, and we couldn't help but point out a noteworthy inclusion. #OrangeEagle, y'all.