The goal is for the Syracuse Orange to win both of their final games this season, finish 6-6, and automatically qualify for a bowl game. The reality, however, is that a scenario like that is unlikely.
Syracuse hosts No. 17 Florida State this upcoming weekend and then travels to Pitt, who just knocked off formerly-undefeated Clemson, and could possibly be angling for the ACC Coastal Division crown.
Especially considering the team will probably be without Eric Dungey for at least one more week, it seems very unrealistic that this team can win-out. Even the idea of this team splitting the remaining games seems questionable.
But let’s just say they do. They either shock the Seminoles in the Dome or steal a win from Pitt. What chances does Syracuse have at 5-7 of qualifying for a bowl game under the APR rules?
Chris Carlson broke down the field of teams vying for the 80 available bowl spots. Right now, 58 teams are already bowl eligible. There are 20 teams currently with five wins and five of them would beat out Syracuse head-to-head in a tiebreaker. Of the teams in Syracuse’s position, in need to two more wins, there are 17 of them. As Carlson breaks it down, there are currently 83 teams ahead of SU in terms of wins and tiebreakers. That means if everything remains constant and the Orange do win another game, they probably won’t go bowling.
But, we all know that college football is weird. It’s entirely possible. The teams with APR tiebreakers over the Orange that we need to keep an eye on include North Texas (4-6), Notre Dame (4-6), Vanderbilt (4-6), TCU (5-4), Duke (4-6) and Boston College (4-6).
Of course, there’s always the possibility that a 5-7 team declines a bowl bid, that’s happened. So there are still bowl options on the table for SU, but only if they take care of their own business in the next two weeks.