Breaking Down Dino Babers/Bowling Green Offensive Play-Calling vs. Northern Illinois

Hey, you know these. Or at least you thought you did. And I thought I did too.

Then... one re-watch of a Dino Babers-coached Bowling Green team and I'm hooked. Chances are you will be too. Because while the below is far from perfect, it offers an image of what could potentially be for the Syracuse Orange. I'll take that promise for now, and am pretty excited about what it represents. SU football, largely without an offense for the last 10 years (save 2012, a year we should be increasingly thankful for with each passing season), will VERY MUCH HAVE AN OFFENSE. And win or lose, they'll be entertaining running it.

A primer for you, just for comparison's sake, so we can project things onto Syracuse's personnel:

Matt Johnson = Eric Dungey

Fred Coppet = Jordan Fredericks

Travis Greene = Ervin Philips

Roger Lewis = Steve Ishmael

Gehrig Dieter = Ben Lewis

Ronnie Moore = Brisly Estime

Ryan Burbrink = Dontae Strickland

Derek Lee = Jamal Custis

Cool? Cool. Let's dive in...

First Quarter

DRIVE 1
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
14:50	1st and 10	BGSU 29	Play Action; Pass	Johnson	Screen L	Incomplete (Burbrink)
14:34	2nd and 10	BGSU 29	Play Action; Pass; Sack	Johnson	N/A	9 Yard Loss
14:10	3rd and 19	BGSU 20	Play Action; Pass	Dieter	Mid Range L	10 Yard Gain
DRIVE 2
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
11:48	1st and 10	BGSU 17	Pass	Johnson	Short L	Incomplete (Moore)
11:40	2nd and 10	BGSU 17	Pocket Breakdown; Run	Johnson		12 Yard Gain
11:15	1st and 10	BGSU 29	Play Action; Pass	Dieter	Short L	15 Yard Gain
10:49	1st and 10	BGSU 44	Play Action; Pass	Lewis	Screen R	2 Yard Loss
10:33	2nd and 12	BGSU 42	Pass	Johnson	Short R	Incomplete (Lewis)
10:22	3rd and 12	BGSU 42	Pass	Greene	Short M	2 Yard Loss
DRIVE 3
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
6:44	1st and 10	BGSU 30	Run	Coppet	Dive L	6 Yard Gain
6:13	2nd and 4	BGSU 36	Run	Coppet	Dive L	1 Yard Gain
5:58	3rd and 3	BGSU 37	Run	Coppet	Dive R	13 Yard Gain
5:42	1st and 10	NIU 50	Pass	Lewis	Screen R	4 Yard Gain
5:36	2nd and 6	NIU 46	Play Action; Pass	Lewis	Screen R	6 Yard Gain
5:17	1st and 10	NIU 40	Play Action; Pass	Burbrink	Screen R	7 Yard Gain
5:00	2nd and 3	NIU 33	Run	Coppet	Dive L	15 Yard Gain
4:44	1st and 10	NIU 18	Pass	Dieter	Screen L	11 Yard Gain
4:26	1st and Goal	NIU 7	Run	Coppet	Dive R	3 Yard Gain
4:15	2nd and Goal	NIU 4	Run	Coppet	Dive R	4 Yard Gain; TD
DRIVE 4
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
0:10	1st and 10	BGSU 22	Play Action; Pass	Dieter	Mid Range M	19 Yard Gain
0:03	1st and 10	BGSU 41	Run	Greene	Off Tackle R	5 Yard Gain

Play-Call Breakdown: 14 passes, 7 runs

Even when they're not really getting the ball into the end zone )as we saw early here), Babers's attack is a manic, pressing one to watch. Bowling Green's in control, but always teetering on the brink -- which is what makes it fun and effective. You can see the method in the system. It's simply based on "gain yards" and "wear out the defense." Both worked pretty well in the early going, and they really didn't try anything too tough. Just screens to keep the D honest. Then quick inside runs to shred the line. Rinse, repeat.

Second Quarter

15:00	2nd and 5	BGSU 46	Run	Greene	Dive L	11 Yard Gain
14:35	1st and 10	NIU 43	Run	Greene	Off Tackle L	2 Yard Gain
13:55	2nd and 8	NIU 41	Run	Greene	Dive L	4 Yard Gain
13:17	3rd and 4	NIU 37	Option; Pass	Moore	Screen R	3 Yard Gain
12:56	4th and 1	NIU 34	Run	Greene	Dive R	2 Yard Gain
12:38	1st and 10	NIU 32	Pass	Johnson	Deep M	Incomplete (Greene)
12:28	2nd and 10	NIU 32	Run	Greene	Off Tackle R	20 Yard Gain
12:15	1st and 10	NIU 12	PENALTY (False Start)	McAuliffe	N/A	5 Yard Loss
12:01	1st and 15	NIU 17	Pass	Johnson	Short M	Incomplete (Burbrink)
11:49	2nd and 15	NIU 17	Run	Coppet	Dive L	7 Yard Gain
11:30	3rd and 8	NIU 10	Run	Coppet	Dive L	6 Yard Gain
11:03	4th and 2	NIU 4	Run	Coppet	Dive R	0 Yard Gain
DRIVE 5
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
9:13	1st and 10	NIU 47	Pass	Burbrink	Short M	8 Yard Gain
8:55	2nd and 2	NIU 39	Option; Pass	Moore	Screen R	6 Yard Gain
8:38	1st and 10	NIU 33	Play Action; Pass	Johnson	Short R	Incomplete (Burbrink)
8:23	2nd and 10	NIU 33	Pass	Greene	Screen R	9 Yard Gain
8:10	3rd and 1	NIU 24	Run	Johnson	Dive L	4 Yard Gain
7:48	1st and 10	NIU 20	Run	Greene	Dive R	7 Yard Gain
7:34	2nd and 3	NIU 13	PENALTY (Holding)	Huettel	N/A	9 Yard Loss
7:09	2nd and 12	NIU 22	Pass	Johnson	Deep M	Interception
DRIVE 6
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
6:19	1st and 10	NIU 17	PENALTY (Offsides)	Ford	N/A	5 Yard Gain
6:14	1st and 5	NIU 12	Run	Johnson	Dive R	6 Yard Gain
5:46	1st and Goal	NIU 6	Run	Coppet	Dive L	4 Yard Gain
5:28	2nd and Goal	NIU 2	Play Action; Pass	Lee	Short R	2 Yard Gain; TD
DRIVE 7
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
3:24	1st and 10	BGSU 16	Play Action; Pass	Moore	Short M	14 Yard Gain
3:12	1st and 10	BGSU 30	Pass	Moore	Screen R	9 Yard Gain
2:45	2nd and 1	BGSU 39	Run	Greene	Dive R	4 Yard Gain
2:18	1st and 10	BGSU 43	Pass	Burbrink	Short L	4 Yard Gain
1:46	2nd and 6	BGSU 47	Pass	Dieter	Short L	4 Yard Gain
1:32	3rd and 2	NIU 49	Run	Greene	Dive L	5 Yard Gain
1:10	1st and 10	NIU 44	Pass	Greene	Screen R	4 Yard Gain
1:10	2nd and 6	NIU 40	PENALTY (Unsportsmanlike)	Ford	N/A	15 Yard Gain
1:01	1st and 10	NIU 25	Run	Greene	Dive L	25 Yard Gain; TD
DRIVE 8
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
0:08	1st and 10	BGSU 31	PENALTY (Holding)	Bennett	N/A	10 Yard Loss

Play-Call Breakdown: 15 runs, 14 passes

Bowling Green commits some penalties, yes. Plus they leave a bunch of points on the board -- two things we've all assailed Scott Shafer teams for doing. BUT, this team just never appeared out of it, even when faced with long-yardage situations. Again, the scheme's not overly complex and never seems to try too hard. Run inside effectively. Pass outside effectively. Keep the defense off-balance with speed. Northern Illinois -- which did play tough defense in this one -- spends the first part of the second quarter looking around and struggling to get set. Even without points, that means the Falcons offense works (the big difference with this offense and the McDonald/Lester attacks).

Third Quarter

DRIVE 9
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
14:03	1st and 10	BGSU 27	PENALTY (False Start)	McAuliffe	N/A	5 Yard Loss
13:45	1st and 15	BGSU 22	Run	Coppet	Dive L	13 Yard Gain
13:22	2nd and 2	BGSU 35	Play Action; Pass	Lewis	Mid Range R	13 Yard Gain
13:16	1st and 10	BGSU 48	Run	Coppet	Dive R	3 Yard Gain
12:55	2nd and 7	NIU 49	Run	Coppet	Dive L	4 Yard Gain
12:26	3rd and 3	NIU 45	Play Action; Pass	Lewis	Mid Range R	45 Yard Gain; TD
DRIVE 10
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
8:58	1st and 10	BGSU 4	Run	Greene	Dive R	2 Yard Gain
8:23	2nd and 8	BGSU 6	Option; Pitch	Greene	End R	3 Yard Loss
7:47	3rd and 11	BGSU 3	Play Action; Pass	Lewis	Mid Range M	9 Yard Gain
DRIVE 11
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
5:43	1st and 10	NIU 46	Run	Greene	Off Tackle L	0 Yard Gain
5:00	2nd and 10	NIU 46	Run	Greene	Dive L	8 Yard Gain
4:45	3rd and 2	NIU 38	Play Action; Pass	Johnson	Mid Range M	Incomplete
4:37	4th and 2	NIU 38	Play Action; Pass	Johnson	Deep L	Incomplete
DRIVE 12
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
2:54	1st and 10	NIU 47	Pass	Dieter	Short L	7 Yard Gain
2:24	2nd and 3	NIU 40	Play Action; Pass	Johnson	Screen L	Interception
DRIVE 13
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
2:15	1st and 10	BGSU 17	Run	Greene	Dive R	3 Yard Gain
1:47	2nd and 7	BGSU 20	Run	Greene	Dive L	15 Yard Gain
1:11	1st and 10	BGSU 35	Run	Greene	Dive R	4 Yard Gain
1:00	2nd and 6	BGSU 39	Play Action; Pass	Dieter	Mid Range M	9 Yard Gain
0:00	1st and 10	BGSU 48	Run	Greene	Dive L	7 Yard Gain

Play-Call Breakdown: 11 runs, 8 passes

This one looked over early in the third quarter, when fresh off a break at halftime, NIU's defensive backs appeared to be hyperventilating on the field, completely out of breath while trying to keep pace with the Bowling Green offense. This quarter was pass-happy, however, and the team suffered for it with a pick-six and a largely ineffective few drives made QB Matt Johnson look awful shaky. Still, the return to the run paid big dividends at the start of drive 13, as you see above. Travis Greene had himself a day at running back, which you probably knew already.

Fourth Quarter

15:00	2nd and 3	NIU 45	Play Action; Pass	Johnson	Deep R	Incomplete (Lewis)
14:47	3rd and 3	NIU 45	Play Action; Pass	Moore	Screen R	21 Yard Gain
14:13	1st and 10	NIU 24	Run	Greene	Off Tackle R	3 Yard Gain
13:33	2nd and 7	NIU 21	Run	Greene	Dive L	4 Yard Gain
13:17	3rd and 3	NIU 17	PENALTY (Pass Interference)	Smalls	N/A	15 Yard Gain
13:11	1st and Goal	NIU 2	Play Action; Pass	Johnson	Short R	Incomplete
13:11	2nd and Goal	NIU 2	Run	Greene	Dive R	1 Yard Gain
12:32	3rd and Goal	NIU 1	Run	Greene	Dive R	1 Yard Gain; TD
DRIVE 14
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
8:48	1st and 10	BGSU 12	Run	Coppet	Dive R	5 Yard Gain
8:05	2nd and 5	BGSU 17	Run	Coppet	Dive R	0 Yard Gain
7:15	3rd and 5	BGSU 17	Pass; Sack	Johnson	N/A	6 Yard Loss
DRIVE 15
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
5:34	1st and 10	BGSU 8	Run	Greene	Dive L	7 Yard Gain
5:00	2nd and 3	BGSU 15	Run	Greene	Dive R	30 Yard Gain
4:11	1st and 10	BGSU 45	Run	Greene	Dive R	1 Yard Gain
4:00	2nd and 9	BGSU 46	Run	Greene	Dive L	0 Yard Gain
3:48	3rd and 9	BGSU 46	Run	Greene	Dive L	1 Yard Gain
3:10	4th and 8	BGSU 47	PENALTY (Delay of Game)	Johnson	N/A	5 Yard Loss
DRIVE 16
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
2:20	1st and 10	NIU 44	PENALTY (Holding)	Lewis	N/A	9 Yard Loss
1:45	1st and 7	BGSU 47	Option; Run	Johnson	Off Tackle R	1 Yard Gain
1:00	2nd and 6	BGSU 48	Run	Coppet	Dive R	2 Yard Gain
0:30	3rd and 4	NIU 50	Run	Moore	End L	4 Yard Loss

Play-Call Breakdown: 14 runs, 4 passes

With Greene running the way he was, and Johnson finding his rhythm again, you could probably gloss over whatever happened in the fourth quarter as non-essential notes. However, with the team clearly in close-out mode, NIU did sell out against the run and did make stops throughout the fourth quarter. And without a ton of passing or tempo, Babers's offense looked rather awkward/pedestrian. That's to be expected of a speed-based scheme. But be on the lookout for how a Babers-led Syracuse is able to close (or not close) teams out.

***

• Overall play-calling breakdown: 47 called runs vs. 40 called passes. Syracuse's best figure was 76 in 2015, and that required overtime. This was 87 AND the team was trying to kill clock for a full quarter. One quarter of Babers-ball outpaces a full half of the offense Lester was running. More plays mean more chances to score, FYI.
  
• First half play-calling: 28 passes vs. 22 runs (12:25 in second half, which is expected)
• First downs: 25 total (14 rushing, 9 passing, 2 penalty)
  
• First down play selection: 20 called runs, 18 called passes
  
• First down play selection on subsequent sets of downs: 13 called runs, 12 called passes
  
• First down plays for five or more yards: 18. They beat Syracuse's 2015 season average of 11 such plays in the first half alone.
  
• Second down play selection: 18 called runs, 13 called passes
  
• Third down play selection: 8 called passes; 7 called runs
  
• Third down conversion: 6-for-15 (4 runs, 2 passes) -- this was actually a poor game in that department for the Falcons. They're the best team in the country converting on third down (COMPLETE 180, SYRACUSE!)
  
• 46 of Bowling Green's 87 play calls (53 percent) took place in Northern Illinois territory. That would rank middle of the road for Syracuse this year, to be honest. The Orange did pretty well in that category, from a percentage standpoint.
  
• Play action, which was utilized a whole lot, was 12-for-21, for 172 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Early use of it helped keep the Huskies' defense guessing, and kept them from stacking the outside against BGSU's numerous playmakers at receiver.
  
• "Four playmakers" usage rate: If we sub in Syracuse "four playmakers" for their comparable Bowling Green players (Coppett, Greene, Lewis and Moore, respectively), we get a usage rate of 70 percent, or 61-of-87. If you're looking for analogies, Coach Babers, I have them right here for you.
  
• Bowling Green had 10 plays of 15 yards or more -- a slight jump from Syracuse's typical mark of around seven. They also had another seven plays gain between 10 and 14 yards (also similar to SU's numbers there). But with 501 yards of total offense, those plays get to be a smaller percentage of the total yardage gained, while still making a positive impact on ball movement and scoring chances.
  
• Including penalties, 12 plays went for a loss. That's not great, and is pretty similar to what Syracuse went through for most of 2015.
  
• Bowling Green was three-for-four in the red zone, getting stuffed on the two-yard line on one occasion. They never bothered with field goals, and also scored a touchdown from the 25 (just outside the red zone), as well as another from the 45.
  
• Six drives that were either three-and-outs or turnovers might seem bad, but remember it's less of a back-breaker when you have 15 or 16 possessions..

Keeping these further notes quick: We saw an attack that's run much better than what Syracuse had this past season, but with similarly talented personnel. Obviously Bowling Green had the benefit of a senior quarterback and some veteran halfbacks. But the make-up of the receiving corps wasn't much different and overall, the skill players in Orange can largely be plugged into similar roles to the ones on display in the MAC Championship Game.

Along with the overall play-calling pattern varying a ton and being very hard to predict, it looked adaptable to both the run and pass, and the situation at hand (save maybe running out the clock at game's end). The Bowling Green staff was willing to make adjustments, and that bodes well for Syracuse, which had a previous staff hell-bent on not making them -- at least from where I sat. Third down proficiency is a godsend, given how badly the Orange have struggled there.

With its current personnel, Syracuse is well-situated to adapt to Babers's offense rather quickly. The screens and dives aren't completely dissimilar to what Tim Lester was doing, and for the older players, they should have some common ground with what George McDonald attempted to do during his 18-game tenure as SU offensive coordinator. But with experienced play-callers, more speed and better downhill blocking (plus a speedy run threat at QB), we could see some very different results this time around.

***

Questions, comments, big takeaways other than thoroughly enjoying what's to come for Syracuse? (or hey, share that too) Toss in anything else below.