This just feels right:
As usual, consume the material as you see fit.
|DATE||OPPONENT||MASSEY W%||MASSEY PROJ.||S&P+ W%||S&P+ PROJ.||FPI W%||SAGARIN SPREAD|
|Nov-21||at N.C. State||17%||24-37||11%||18-39||13%||+14.67|
Some brief thoughts on this:
- A 26.5-point line against Clemson -- in the Carrier Dome! -- is within the band that football computers are projecting. Syracuse isn't expected to keep it close or triumph all that often against Clemson in a 10,000-game series, and that situation should color expectations heading into the Orange's penultimate home date of the season. The Tigers are eating faces -- Clemson is ranked second in the Massey Ratings (the Tigers are first in the Massey composite), first in S&P+, sixth in FPI, and second in the Sagarin Ratings -- and just bent Florida State in half in Death Valley. An upset on Saturday is incredibly remote, and watching Syracuse leave with all of its limbs attached would be a great success against the Tigers.
- S&P+ is still lagging on Syracuse's chances against Boston College, but everything else on the board is providing the Orange toss-up opportunities against the Eagles. Boston College is idle this week and will pivot to Notre Dame the weekend before Thanksgiving, a date that provides the Eagles with an itty bitty win probability. Four-Win Bowl in the concrete mausoleum is not guaranteed, but there's a stupid high possibility that it comes to fruition. That game should be broadcast on CB radio.
- I see a lot of "Yeah, but . . ." when it comes to N.C. State, yet football computers still reflect the Wolfpack as significant favorites against Syracuse. N.C. State just thrashed Boston College in Chestnut Hill -- a team comparable to the Orange, even if B.C. and Syracuse make their nickels in different ways -- and are likely going to be looking to stab the Orange in the heart after facing Florida State the week prior. Should and can are two very different things.
Here's a win-loss projection table from three football computers:
A blended Monte Carlo simulation with the Massey Ratings and FPI values gives Syracuse about a 37% chance of losing its last three games and around a 51% chance of winning one more game. The chances of winning out hovers around 0.5% (not five percent; half a percent). A two-win close comprises the cumulative difference. As this caused a little confusion last week, here's the same material in odds format: Lose Out: 5:2; One Win: 1:1; Two Wins: 8:1; Three Wins: 200:1.
As for how football computers changed their outlook after last weekend's debacle, here are the changes from last week:
|DATE||OPPONENT||MASSEY W%||MASSEY MARG.||S&P+ W%||S&P+ MARG.||FPI W%||SAGARIN SPREAD|
|Nov-21||at N.C. State||-7%||-4||-8%||-6||-3%||+2.38|
|MASSEY W||MASSEY L||S&P+ W||S&P+ L||FPI W||FPI L|
Some brief thoughts on this:
- Syracuse is about 2.1 wins off the pace that football computers were projecting after falling to LSU. The Orange are about 2.2 wins off the pace that football computers were projecting following Syracuse's bye week. There's some inherent noise in that -- the football computers were, at various stages, shedding preseason projections and the nation was only a handful of games into its 2015 effort -- but Syracuse was on a six-win trajectory and is now hurtling toward a four-win reality.
- Syracuse's projections against Clemson and N.C. State are moving in the wrong direction and Boston College isn't moving significantly enough in the Orange's favor. Considering that these values haven't drastically changed since late September/early October, there's a lot of truth to this tweet:
Asked about how the team is improving, Shafet said not enough given W-L record— Stephen Bailey (@Stephen_Bailey1) November 7, 2015