If the Syracuse Orange football team has any hopes of going to a bowl game in 2015, they'll need to win three of their final four games (two more wins ain't gonna do it).
According to the computers, it's more likely that SU wins only one more game this year, and even that one win is hovering close to 50/50.
But they don't play college football games on computers. I mean, they do, but not these games. These games get played on actual football fields between teams on offense and teams on defense.
When Syracuse's offense has the ball, they're the 115th most effective offense in the nation. And that is gonna be a problem because all four teams left on the schedule are all currently ranked in the Top 20 in the nation in team defense.
The No. 17 Louisville Cardinals.
The No. 5 Clemson Tigers
The No. 10 N.C. State Wolfpack
The No. 1 Boston College Eagles
If the Orange have any chance of proving the odds, computers, Vegas and everyone else wrong, they'll need to start by taking care of business against a surging Cardinals defense that is on a quarterback sacking tear. They're basically averaging 3-4 sacks per game and they haven't even met the Syracuse offensive line yet.
Tim Lester said this week that "this is the kind of game we have to have a good plan. We have to find out mismatches and exploit them." No kidding.
How SU does this weekend offensively could spell out how things go from here. Of course none of this takes into account that the No. 3 Clemson Tigers are just around the corner as well and whatever SU's offense may be able to do will pale in comparison to what Clemson's offense can do.
If you believe that college football exists in a world where anything can happen, then November will be your proving ground. Because on paper, the Syracuse football team's chances do not look good. Not good at all.