Note: All of this was written before Scott Shafer was dismissed. Given the fact that a variable has been introduced here that, uh, probably means something, caveat emptor.
As usual, consume the material as you see fit.
|DATE||OPPONENT||MASSEY W%||MASSEY PROJ.||S&P+ W%||S&P+ PROJ.||FPI W%||SAGARIN SPREAD|
Some brief thoughts on this:
- The 3.5-point spread is a pretty fair line, especially considering that Boston College is coming off of a decent performance against Notre Dame and Syracuse is coming off of a four-course ass-whipping against N.C. State. The line may track in the Orange's favor this week, but the the spread isn't likely to breach three points in either direction given the expectation football computers are setting. Sitting in a toss up situation with the Eagles is great for Orange Eagle Trophy considerations, but it's less than stellar that Syracuse and Boston College could play a three overtime game that somehow finishes 4-2 and ends the entire concept of football.
- Looking back to the week after Syracuse lost to LSU, the blended win probability for Syracuse against Boston College has basically hung around 48%, topping out at 53% last week and bottoming out at 42% following the Orange's loss to Virginia in Charlottesville. That's a pretty tight window and illustrates, at least from a high level, the inability of Syracuse to progress relative to Boston College throughout the last two months. In terms of blended projected spread, Syracuse has been about a one-point 'dog to the Eagles since meeting the LSU in the Dome, seeing its highest projected margin as a favorite this week and witnessing its deepest hole after its bye week (best blended spread as a favorite: -1.38; worst blended spread as an underdog: +4.04). These teams have been on an awful collision course for weeks.
Here's a win-loss projection table from three football computers:
This is the brain-leaking residue of facing a toss up situation against a similarly-situated opponent on the last competition date of the season. Four wins is not significantly better than three wins, but it at least smells better. The date against the Eagles could go either way, and the Orange's ability to collar a quartet of wins is decidedly dicey. There are no guarantees this week, which is just about the darkest timeline possible with Syracuse's bus engulfed in flames while careening through an eight-game losing streak and Boston College's spaceship crashing through the atmosphere without a heat shield following a seven-game winless stretch.
As for how football computers changed their outlook after last weekend's whateverthehellthatwas, here's a +/- map:
|DATE||OPPONENT||MASSEY W%||MASSEY MARG.||S&P+ W%||S&P+ MARG.||FPI W%||SAGARIN SPREAD|
|MASSEY W||MASSEY L||S&P+ W||S&P+ L||FPI W||FPI L|