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Projecting ACC Football Standings With Advanced Stats: Week 6

What does this conference look like, according to advanced projections?

Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, Hoya Suxa outlined the road to six wins for the Syracuse Orange football team. Today, we take a look at how projections see the ACC standings playing out (and of course, where Syracuse falls within those standings).

First, here's how the ACC looks right now, according to S&P+ rankings:

Team S&P+
Clemson 4
Florida State 8
Duke 11
Louisville 13
Boston College 18
Georgia Tech 35
Miami (FL) 44
Pittsburgh 45
Syracuse 49
NC State 52
North Carolina 68
Virginia Tech 70
Wake Forest 76
Virginia 82

So while Syracuse is having a quality season thus far, ends up eight ACC teams have had better ones. That's no knock on the Orange, just a note that the conference, overall, has actually put in some quality work through five weeks.

But why are these ratings important? Because they assist projected win percentages -- though it's not as simple as "if X's rating is better than Y's, X beats Y." And that's where things get interesting for us as we look at the ACC standings as they're currently projected.

This isn't the ONLY model out there, and things change from week-to-week, but if current ratings hold true, the ACC standings would look something like this at the end of week 13:

Atlantic Overall Conf.
Clemson 10.5-1.5 6.62-1.38
Florida State 9.73-2.27 6.35-1.65
Louisville 6.84-5.16 4.99-3.01
Boston College 7.11-4.89 3.66-4.34
Syracuse 6.2-5.8 3.59-4.41
NC State 6.85-5.15 2.85-5.15
Wake Forest 3.48-8.52 1.37-6.63
Coastal Overall Conf.
Duke 9.86-2.14 5.95-2.05
North Carolina 6.97-5.03 3.97-4.03
Pittsburgh 6.79-5.31 3.79-4.21
Miami 6.56-5.44 3.56-4.44
Georgia Tech 5.69-6.31 3.14-5.86
Virginia Tech 4.43-7.57 2.43-5.57
Virginia 3.07-8.93 2.07-5.93

Teams can't win a fraction of any game, which is where things get interesting, obviously. If you just round up, SU's in a tie for fourth in the Atlantic at 4-4, and is one of nine league teams with a 4-4 or better ACC record. If you look over at the Coastal Division, you'll long for a world where we're there instead, given the fact that four wins probably nets you a second-place finish behind the now heavily-favored Duke Blue Devils.


Again, these projections change from week to week, with injuries, improvements by some teams and declining results from others as schedules get tougher. But you have to like Syracuse sitting above more lauded squads like Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at this very moment. And even more so to see them above future opponents like Virginia and NC State (and dead-even with others like Pitt and Boston College). This model also shows both sides of the "schedule easy" coin. For NC State, who scheduled easy, there's not a whole lot of positive left. But you could say the same for Virginia, who scheduled tough, as well.

We'll try to update this every week. For now, revel in what we've got and let's hope for another win this coming Saturday over USF to get these win probabilities trending up even further.