Syracuse Football: Breaking Down Offensive Play-Calling vs. Villanova

So we're doing this? Yes, sadly, we are. Though I will add a caveat before jumping into this week's play-calling breakdown from Syracuse's almost-loss vs. Villanova: take most of it with a grain of salt. Not the first part, with Terrel Hunt under center, of course. But that second part, with Austin Wilson taking snaps and utilizing a very stripped-down playbook? Yeah, that part you can sort of rectify in your mind as a result of having a new, inexperienced QB thrown in without warning. And maybe a lack of team-wide preparation for what happens when you lose an important offensive player (like Hunt).

ANYWAY... we dive in below to see how/what the Orange did on Friday:

First Quarter

DRIVE 1
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
8:56	1st and 10	SYR 4	Run	Gulley	Off-Tackle L	4 Yard Gain
8:25	2nd and 6	SYR 8	Pass	Gulley	Screen L	4 Yard Gain
8:05	3rd and 2	SYR 12	Run	Hunt	Off-Tackle R	2 Yard Loss
7:17	4th and 4	SYR 10	PENALTY (Run Into Kicker)	McCurry	N/A	5 Yard Gain
7:03	1st and 10	SYR 15	Pass	Hunt	Mid-Range R	Incomplete
6:59	2nd and 10	SYR 15	Pass	Broyld	Deep R	20 Yard Gain
6:34	1st and 10	SYR 35	Run	Gulley	Off-Tackle R	65 Yard Gain; TD
DRIVE 2
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
1:32	1st and 10	SYR 20	Pass	Estime	Screen R	1 Yard Gain
1:00	2nd and 9	SYR 21	Pass; Fumble	Estime	Screen L	8 Yard Loss
0:25	3rd and 17	SYR 13	Pass	Hunt	Mid-Range L	Incomplete

Play-Call Breakdown: 6 passes, 3 runs

If not for a Villanova penalty for running into the kicker, this first quarter consists of five passes and one run for a grand total of one net yard... so this is where you should be at least a bit concerned. The Orange started the game doing exactly what they did last year -- a pretty steady dose of off-tackle runs and bubble screens, regularly out of a two-back set. On the first drive, these plays ended up giving Hunt ample room to complete a longer pass to Ashton Broyld, which in turn gave Prince-Tyson Gulley some room in the middle to bust open that big touchdown run. Unfortunately, that did not carry over into the second drive, however.

***

Second Quarter

DRIVE 3
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
10:10	1st and 10	SYR 31	Pass	Broyld	Screen L	2 Yard Gain
9:55	2nd and 8	SYR 33	PENALTY (Holding)	Flemming	N/A	10 Yard Loss
9:53	1st and 18	SYR 23	Pass	Gulley	Screen L	8 Yard Gain
9:32	2nd and 10	SYR 33	Pass	Hunt	Mid-Range L	Incomplete
9:27	3rd and 10	SYR 33	PENALTY (Declined)	Foy	N/A	N/A
9:27	3rd and 10	SYR 33	Pass	Broyld	Mid-Range M	17 Yard Gain
9:07	1st and 10	SYR 48	Play-Action Pass	Broyld	Screen L	12 Yard Gain
8:53	1st and 10	NOVA 40	Run	Morris	Dive	1 Yard Gain
8:26	2nd and 9	NOVA 39	Pass	Hunt	Screen R	Incomplete
8:20	3rd and 9	NOVA 39	Pass	West	Mid-Range R	13 Yard Gain
8:02	1st and 10	NOVA 26	Pass	Lewis	Deep L	11 Yard Gain
7:33	1st and 10	NOVA 15	Run	Morris	End R	6 Yard Loss
7:15	2nd and 16	NOVA 21	Pass	Hunt	Mid-Range L	Incomplete
6:58	3rd and 16	NOVA 21	Pass	Hunt	Deep M	Incomplete
DRIVE 4
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
5:54	1st and 10	SYR 15	Run	Gulley	Dive	2 Yard Gain
5:26	2nd and 8	SYR 17	Run	Hunt	End L	21 Yard Gain
4:57	1st and 10	SYR 38	Run	Ameen-Moore	Dive	2 Yard Gain
4:25	2nd and 8	SYR 40	Penalty (Holding)	Hickey	N/A	10 Yard Loss
4:25	2nd and 18	SYR 30	Penalty (Roughing)	Hermon	N/A	15 Yard Gain
4:19	1st and 10	SYR 45	Run	McFarlane	Off-Tackle L	4 Yard Gain
3:54	2nd and 6	SYR 49	PENALTY (Sub. Infraction)	N/A	N/A	5 Yard Gain
3:54	2nd and 1	NOVA 46	Pass	West	Mid-Range M	6 Yard Gain
3:35	1st and 10	NOVA 40	Run	Hunt	End R	6 Yard Gain
3:24	2nd and 4	NOVA 34	PENALTY (Personal Foul)	Hunt	N/A	15 Yard Loss
3:04	2nd and 19	NOVA 49	Pass	Gulley	Screen R	9 Yard Gain
2:42	3rd and 10	NOVA 40	Pass	Ishmael	Screen L	4 Yard Gain

Play-Call Breakdown: 13 passes, 7 runs

Syracuse typically gets in trouble when it starts relying too heavily on the pass -- not its strongest suit -- and it shows in the second quarter as the offense stalls out on consecutive drives in Villanova territory. Penalties rear their ugly head on both sides, but obviously the one that hurt the most was the personal foul assessed to Hunt above at the 3:24 mark, which resulted in his ejection. While the quarter started by throwing the ball a ton, at least they appeared to be mixing up targets, with Broyld, Gulley, Adrian Flemming and Ben Lewis all getting involved. Later on, Steve Ishmael finally saw the ball, and chances are we'll see more of him in similar screen rolls (though that blocking... oof). So overall, while they appeared to move the ball well, this quarter only ends up a moderate success because they couldn't get close to the end zone. There's also that lingering issue of Hunt deep balls leading receivers into the sideline...

***

Third Quarter

DRIVE 5
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
14:53	1st and 10	SYR 17	Pass	West	Screen R	6 Yard Gain
14:40	2nd and 4	SYR 23	Pass	Broyld	Screen L	6 Yard Gain
14:10	1st and 10	SYR 29	Pass	Wilson	Screen R	Incomplete
13:58	2nd and 10	SYR 29	PENALTY (Def. interference)	McCurry	N/A	15 Yard Gain
13:58	1st and 10	SYR 44	Run	Wilson	Off-Tackle R	1 Yard Gain
13:33	2nd and 9	SYR 45	Pass	Ishmael	Mid-Range R	9 Yard Gain
13:25	1st and 10	NOVA 46	Pass	Lewis	Screen R	4 Yard Gain
12:54	2nd and 6	NOVA 42	Run	Wilson	Dive	0 Yard Gain
12:23	3rd and 6	NOVA 42	Pass	Lewis	Mid-Range L	13 Yard Gain
11:59	1st and 10	NOVA 29	Run	Ameen-Moore	Off-Tackle L	7 Yard Gain
11:36	2nd and 3	NOVA 22	Run	Ameen-Moore	Off-Tackle L	2 Yard Loss
11:03	3rd and 5	NOVA 24	Pass	West	Mid-Range R	17 Yard Gain
10:35	1st and Goal	NOVA 7	Run	Gulley	Off-Tackle R	5 Yard Gain
10:08	2nd and Goal	NOVA 2	Run	Ameen-Moore	Dive	2 Yard Gain; TD
DRIVE 6
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
5:17	1st and 10	SYR 9	Run	Wilson	Dive	4 Yard Loss
4:49	2nd and 15	SYR 4	Run	Morris	Dive	4 Yard Gain
4:29	3rd and 11	SYR 8	Pass	Flemming	Mid-Range L	12 Yard Gain
4:14	1st and 10	SYR 20	Run	Morris	Dive	4 Yard Gain
3:46	2nd and 6	SYR 24	Run	Morris	End R	3 Yard Loss
3:12	3rd and 9	SYR 21	PENALTY (False Start)	Foy	N/A	5 Yard Loss
3:00	3rd and 14	SYR 16	Pass	Wilson	Mid-Range R	Incomplete
DRIVE 7
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
2:26	1st and 10	SYR 35	PENALTY (Def. interference)	Ceneus	N/A	15 Yard Gain
2:19	1st and 10	SYR 50	Run	Gulley	Off-Tackle L	2 Yard Gain
1:44	2nd and 8	NOVA 48	Pass	Wilson	Deep M	Incomplete
1:36	3rd and 8	NOVA 48	Pass	Wilson	Mid-Range M	Incomplete

Play-Call Breakdown: 11 passes, 11 runs

SOOO many passes early, but it's sort of understandable since they needed to build up Austin Wilson's confidence (worked, by the way, since they scored a touchdown on that drive). You could tell that Wilson wasn't all that comfortable throwing the ball more than five yards, and as a result, it was once again Bubble Screen City at the Carrier Dome. The offensive line's porousness also doesn't help the team establish any sort of run game, since for every four-yard gain, there's a three- or four-yard loss. Villanova saw how predictable play-calling had gotten by the third (bubble screen or off-tackle run), and responded accordingly, crashing the line to prevent the run and forcing passes past Wilson's comfort zone. Still, this may have been the most productive offensive quarter Syracuse had. Or at least they were able to run the most plays during the third...

***

Fourth Quarter

DRIVE 8
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
7:14	1st and 10	SYR 35	Run	Gulley	End L	3 Yard Gain
6:45	2nd and 7	SYR 38	Pass	Gulley	Short M	8 Yard Loss
6:10	3rd and 15	SYR 30	Pass	Wilson	Mid-Range R	Incomplete

Play-Call Breakdown: 2 passes, 1 run

Yup. That's it. As Al Groh pointed out during the broadcast, VIllanova playing a ball-control style that kept Syracuse's offense off the field only helped matters for them. So did Syracuse's offense really doing nothing of note. This may be the only quarter of Syracuse football since the start of 2013 that didn't feature a bubble screen.

***

Overtime 1

DRIVE 9
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
N/A	1st and 10	NOVA 25	Run	Gulley	Counter L	9 Yard Gain
N/A	2nd and 1	NOVA 16	Run	Gulley	End L	2 Yard Gain
N/A	1st and 10	NOVA 14	Run	Ameen-Moore	Off-Tackle L	13 Yard Gain
N/A	1st and Goal	NOVA 1	Run	Ameen-Moore	Dive	1 Yard Loss
N/A	2nd and Goal	NOVA 2	Run	Ameen-Moore	Off-Tackle L	3 Yard Gain
N/A	3rd and Goal	NOVA 5	Pass	Wilson	Mid-Range R	Incomplete

Play-Call Breakdown: 1 pass, 5 runs

Gulley and Adonis Ameen-Moore set a great tone to start the overtime period, and then things just stalled. Ameen-Moore couldn't get a push from the offensive line, and running off-tackle instead of diving up the gut, he wasn't nearly as effective. Getting knocked back to the five yard line also didn't help, forcing Wilson to try and do too much. Also... no play-action? No play-action.

***

Overtime 2

DRIVE 10
Time	Down	Ball	Run/Pass	Player	Direction	Result
N/A	1st and 10	NOVA 25	Run	Gulley	Off-Tackle L	0 Yard Gain
N/A	2nd and 10	NOVA 25	Pass	West	Mid-Range M	18 Yard Gain
N/A	1st and Goal	NOVA 7	Run	Gulley	Off-Tackle R	3 Yard Loss
N/A	2nd and Goal	NOVA 10	Pass	Wilson	Mid-Range R	Incomplete
N/A	2nd and Goal	NOVA 10	PENALTY (Def. interference)	Reaves	N/A	8 Yard Gain
N/A	1st and Goal	NOVA 2	Run	Ameen-Moore	Off-Tackle L	1 Yard Loss
N/A	2nd and Goal	NOVA 3	Run	Ameen-Moore	Off-Tackle L	2 Yard Gain
N/A	3rd and Goal	NOVA 1	Run	Ameen-Moore	Off-Tackle L	0 Yard Gain
N/A	4th and Goal	NOVA 1	Fake FG; Pass	Moore	Short L	1 Yard Gain; TD

Play-Call Breakdown: 3 passes, 5 runs

Short-yardage plays are once again rough, as Ameen-Moore is continually stuffed, sending Syracuse fans spiraling into memories of the 2006 Iowa game. The fact that this team wouldn't call anything but "off-tackle left" to Ameen-Moore should tell you everything about just how stuck we can get sometimes when we want a certain strategy to work -- in this case, winning short yardage battles in the trenches. The embarrassing display was both saved and made more embarrassing by needing a fake field goal pass by man/god Riley Dixon. Obviously the Orange won, but it doesn't change this terrible display or the unnecessary dancing thereafter.

***

Some trends/numbers to note:

• Overall play-calling breakdown: 36 runs v. 32 passes
• First half play-calling: 19 passes, 10 runs (vs. 17:22 in second half and OT)
  
• First downs: 21 total (4 running, 12 passing, 5 penalty)
  
• First down play selection: 20 called runs, 9 called passes
• First down play selection on subsequent sets of downs: 16 called runs, 5 called passes
• Second down play selection: 16 called passes, 8 called runs
  
• Third down play selection: 12 called passes, 2 called runs
  
• Third down conversion: 5-for-14 (5 passes) -- so more of last year's struggles (39% in 2013)
  
• 37 of Syracuse's 68 plays took place in Villanova territory -- sounds nice until you remember how little SU scored
  
• The Orange held the ball for just 22:24 on the game, which is downright embarrassing...
  
• Syracuse did not convert on third down after the third quarter (nor did they before the second)

Since I was not around in the comments section during the game, I'll start with my typical reaction to things like this: "FUCK." As I said at the start, we can take some of this post-ejection play-calling with a grain of salt, but overall, it does leave you wondering what has really changed compared to last year's mid-season doldrums. The only plays are off-tackle right/left and bubble screen right/left, with very little variation from those. Plus, there's the heavy stress on either passing or running for entire drives, which makes the offense even MORE predictable. Look at how plays break down. First half is all about the pass, second and OT are all about the run... and that's it.

The struggle here, and this continues from last season, is that we're running the ball on a prime passing down (first down) at a 2:1 ratio. That's nuts. Meanwhile, we're the opposite on second (2:1 in favor of passing), and then a whopping 6:1 on third in favor of passing. Last year, when the offense was actually productive, the third down ratio was similar, but second down was balanced. This sort of play-calling makes it so that opponents know exactly what they'll get from us. Syracuse will likely run on first, likely pass on second and then almost definitely pass on third. It's a very easy pattern to pick up as a fan -- nevermind a defensive coordinator.

Again, there's some caveats here given Hunt's absence for a large chunk of this game. But it can't be ignored that if not for a bunch of penalties and a missed FG, this could've been a different result. The offense was inconsistent and bailed out over and over again by those flags. This isn't sustainable, nor is running every play from either a two-back set with AAM (so the ball's going to him every time because he's still not a great blocker) or three wideouts and two tight ends with an empty backfield. I'm willing to give George McDonald more time following 2013's late offensive surge. But there is still a LOT of work to do here based on what we saw on Friday night.