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ACC Lacrosse Tournament Scenarios: So You're Telling Me There's A Chance

Even at 0-3 the Syracuse Orange still have a shot to make the conference tourney. While the chances aren't great, it is definitely possible we sneak into the AACT in Philly.

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

As bad as things seem right now, there is still hope for the Syracuse Orange lacrosse team for making the ACC Tournament.

With two conference games left, the best Syracuse could finish is a measly 2-3. Meanwhile, there are three other teams that could finish 2-3 or worse: Notre Dame, UNC and UVA. A 2-3 UVA record doesn't help us as the Cavaliers hold the tiebreaker.

Technically, there are three scenarios in which Syracuse could makes the ACCT.

The first scenario would put SU into the tournament by going to a head-to-head tiebreaker. The second would leave 3 teams at 2-3, tied for the final two tournament spots. The third scenario, while possible, would be a four-team tie-pocalypse and is quite frankly a nightmare to think about.

Remember, only the top four teams make the conference tournament. If teams end the regular season with the same records, the ACC first goes to a head-to-head tiebreaker, then to the record against higher seeded teams, and then to fewest goals allowed in conference play. First, the current standings look like this:

1. Notre Dame 2-0

2. Maryland 2-1

3. Duke 2-1

4. Virginia 1-1

5. North Carolina 1-2

6. Syracuse 0-3

So who are we rooting now? Syracuse fans don't want surprises. We are rooting against upsets because we want as few bubble teams as possible. This means Duke and Maryland need to win out their schedules. We want the ACC to win out their non-conference schedules. As for the in-conference games, ACC teams losing to other ACC teams doesn't really hurt our at-large bid chances, but will directly affect our chances of making the ACCT.

Scenario #1

Syracuse: wins out (Notre Dame, UNC)

UNC: loses to Syracuse; beats UVA

UVA: loses to Maryland, UNC, Duke

Notre Dame: loses out (Syracuse, Duke, Maryland)

Scenario #1 is the most cut and dry out of the three. It would come down to a head-to-head tiebreaker between SU, Notre Dame, UNC, but SU would have the best head-to-head record followed by the Irish.

3. Syracuse 2-3 (tiebreaker over Notre Dame and UNC)

4. Notre Dame 2-3, 4-1, 3-2 (tiebreaker over UNC)

5. North Carolina 2-3

6. Virginia 1-4

Scenario #2

Syracuse: wins out (Notre Dame, UNC)

Notre Dame: loses out (Syracuse, Duke, Maryland)

UNC: loses to UVA and Syracuse

UVA: loses to Maryland, Duke; beats UNC

In scenario #2, we have three teams tied for third with 2-3 records that all hold a head-to-head win and all have 0-2 records against higher ranked teams. The seeding of the last two tournament teams would come down to goals allowed (assuming they weren't tied in that too).

3. Virginia 2-3 (tiebreaker over Syracuse)

4. Syracuse 2-3 (tiebreaker over Notre Dame)

5. Notre Dame 2-3 (tiebreaker over Virginia)

6. UNC 1-4

Scenario #3

Syracuse: beats UNC, Notre Dame

UVA: beats UNC; loses to Maryland, Duke

UNC: beats UVA; loses to Syracuse

Notre Dame: loses to Syracuse, Duke, Maryland

Each of these teams would have a 2-1 head-to-head record, so that wouldn't help. In their record against higher seeded teams, only UNC would be elevated at 1-1. That still leaves Notre Dame, Syracuse and UVA tied for the fourth spot, all three of who would have beaten UNC so the next tiebreaker would then be goals allowed.

3. UNC 2-3 (tiebreaker over UVA, Notre Dame)

4. Syracuse 2-3 (tiebreaker over UNC, Notre Dame)

5. Notre Dame 2-3 (tiebreaker over UNC, UVA)

6. UVA 2-3 (tiebreaker over Syracuse, UNC)