If you'll excuse me, I'm going to take a page from the OrangeHoops playbook. Now that Bobby Knight has tied and will soon pass Dean Smith on the all-time wins list, its time to think not about how far Knight can go but when his record will be broken by one James Boeheim.Standing at 879 wins, Knight's contract runs through 2011-2012 which means that on his current average (21 wins/season including post-season), he'll have about 1,055 wins before handing over the program to his son and/or realizing his lifelong dream of castrating one of his players at mid-court.
The active coaches coming up behind Knight are Lute Olsen (770), Mike Krzyzewski (764), Jim Calhoun (743) and Jim Boeheim (736). Now, Olsen isn't going to make it many more years, I think that much is obvious. Krzyzewski has about four more years until they find him and Dick Vitale in bed together, thereby running him
out of Duke and forcing him to spend his remaining days coaching high school basketball in Oregon (where oddly enough, Dick Vitale will continue to proclaim Coach K's team "Final Four worthy"). UConn's recent shift into becoming the Kansas State of college basketball can't be good for Jim's health. Plus if Calhoun gets back to another Final Four I think Geno Auriemma might slip some arsenic in Jim's Dunkin Donuts coffee to remove him from the picture.So its very obvious that the only active coach with a shot at this is Jim Boeheim. So what's it gonna take? Jim averages about 23 wins/season. At that pace, by the time Knight retires he will be at 864. That still leaves him 191 behind. But keep in mind Jim is a spry 62 and Knight is currently a rickety 66, so that gives Jim four years on him. Another four years to match Knight's age and Boeheim is now at 956. Plus, you have to factor in the stress and issues that plagued Knight's career and how that affected things. While Boeheim does have quite a bit of stress (most of it heaped on himself or given to him by Terrence Roberts), he's got a few extra years on his career that Knight's problems have robbed him of. I think five seasons is appropriate for that.
So that should do it. The easy answer is that Bob Knight will be passed on the all-time wins list by Jim Boeheim in 2020 when he is 76 years old. Reserve your tickets now! I can't promise to know which game it will be...likely the December 14th, 2020 game against Carnegie Mellon. But I do know one thing...
Julie Boeheim will still be hot.