Let's take a look at the NCAA Tournament bracketology for a minute. Two good sources to keep tabs on for bracketology purposes are the guys over at CollegeCrosse.com and Corey McLaughlin at laxmagazine.com.
If things go as smoothly as possible over the next two weeks, I believe that the first 17 spots are solidified. The biggest question mark will be which program will take the last at-large bid. There are a lot of assumptions involved in the bracketology at this point still, so take this with a grain of salt, because as we all know there is nothing predictable in NCAA lacrosse.
Things to Know About the Selection Process
- All ten conferences have automatic qualifiers this year.
- 18 teams will make the NCAAT.
- There are two play-in games. The four conference champions with the lowest RPI rankings get placed into the play-in games.
- Non-seeded teams (teams that do not get a #1-8 seed) are placed with geographic consideration. Additionally, the Committee tries its best to avoid first round, in-conference matchups.
- An at-large bid cannot go to a team with a sub .500 record.
- Navy and Denver are hosting. That means Navy will be slated in the #2 seed side of the bracket and Denver will be put into the #1 seed side of the bracket. That is assuming Navy makes it into the NCAAT.
Projected Conference Winners
ACC: Notre Dame; AmEast: Albany; Big East: Denver; Big Ten: Maryland; Colonial: Towson; Ivy: Princeton; MAAC: Marist; NEC: Saint Joseph's; Patriot: Navy; Southern: Richmond
Jim's Eight At-Large Bids
Syracuse, UNC, Duke, UVA, Yale, Ohio State, Cornell, Brown
Last Four In
Brown, Ohio State, Yale, Cornell
First Four Out
Georgetown, Marquette, Loyola, Johns Hopkins
Craziness
The Ivy League, Big Ten, AmEast, and Big East all have an opportunity to make things difficult. The Ivy League could simply destroy itself. Keep an eye on that Cornell vs. Princeton game this week. The other three conferences all have one lock, and if a non-lock team wins the AQ, then it would probably kick Brown out of the NCAAT. The Big Ten could screw itself as well, imagine Johns Hopkins winning the B10 Tourney, that could possibly knock out Ohio State.
Jim's Projected Bracket
Bubble Teams
Team |
SOS |
RPI |
Top 5 (RPI) Wins |
Top 10 |
Top 20 |
Losses to Teams Outside Top 20 |
Brown |
38 |
13 |
- |
Cornell |
Princeton |
Bucknell, Penn |
Georgetown |
10 |
12 |
- |
- |
Marquette, Loyola |
- |
Loyola |
8 |
19 |
- |
- |
Navy, Towson |
Bucknell, Holy Cross |
Hopkins |
6 |
16 |
- |
- |
Navy |
- |
Colgate |
25 |
18 |
- |
- |
Loyola |
Fairfield, BU |
Marquette |
23 |
14 |
- |
- |
Ohio State |
Bellarmine |
Cornell |
12 |
9 |
- |
Yale, Albany |
Colgate |
Harvard |
Ohio State |
18 |
11 |
- |
Denver |
Hopkins, Towson |
Detroit |
Yale |
30 |
8 |
Maryland |
- |
Brown |
- |
Virginia |
3 |
7 |
- |
Cornell |
Georgetown, Hopkins, Loyola |
- |
Navy |
26 |
17 |
- |
- |
Colgate, Towson |
Bucknell |
Princeton |
21 |
15 |
- |
Yale |
Hopkins |
Lehigh, Stony Brook |
Conference Breakdown
ACC
Conference Leader: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Locks: Notre Dame, North Carolina Tar Heels, Syracuse Orange, Virginia Cavaliers, Duke Blue Devils
Bubble Teams: N/A
- The ACC will get all five teams in. Keeping in mind that one of the five will get an AQ and the other four will take at-large bids, only four at-large bids remain after the ACC takes its winnings.
AmEast
Conference Leader: Albany Great Danes
Locks: Albany
Bubble Teams: None
- The America East Conference leader is currently the Albany Great Danes. The Stony Brook Seawolves will not make the Tournament unless it wins the AQ. There is an outside chance that Stony Brook could take down Albany in the AmEast Tournament, if that happens Albany will take one of those last two at-large bids.
Big East
Conference Leader: Denver Pioneers
Locks: Denver
Bubble Teams: Marquette Golden Eagles, Georgetown Hoyas
- Marquette's big problem is that it lost the head-to-head with Georgetown. I think the Hoyas are the big question in terms of bubble teams. For me, that eighth at-large comes down to Brown and Georgetown, but I think Brown has the edge after beating Cornell.
Big Ten
Conference Leader: Maryland Terrapins
Locks: Maryland
Bubble Teams: Ohio State Buckeyes
- There is a chance that OSU can take the B10 crown, remember, the Buckeyes have beaten Denver this year.
- Hopkins still has to play Maryland this week before the Big Ten Tourney, so there is definitely a chance this team could win that game, get a win or two in the Big Ten Tournament and play its way into the NCAAT. The Jays are 6-6. A loss to Maryland would put them at 6-7 so it would need to win two games in the Big Ten Tourney to get back to .500 and be eligible for the tournament.
Colonial
Conference Leader: Towson Tigers (has the RPI and head-to-head edge over Fairfield)
Locks: None
Bubble Teams: None
- The only other team challenging Towson is the Fairfield Stags, but I don't see that happening. Towson was a bubble team until it managed just two goals against Hofstra.
IVY
Conference Leader: Princeton Tigers
Locks: There will be at least two Ivy teams in the NCAAT, we just don't know which ones yet. I believe that the Ivy should end up with three, maybe even four teams into the national tournament.
Bubble Teams: Brown Bears, Penn Quakers, Cornell Big Red, Princeton, Yale Bulldogs
- Last week this was such a different picture. Right now the Ivy is a mess. Brown, Yale, Cornell, and Penn could all end up 3-3 in conference. With Princeton taking the regular season title, there are three seeds left in the Ivy Tournament.
- Cornell will not miss the IvyT. Even if the Big Red lose to Princeton and Brown and Yale both win, Cornell will have the head-to-head win over Penn.
- If Brown beats Dartmouth the Bears will move to 4-2 in the Ivy Conference and will guarantee themselves a spot in the Conference Tournament. If Brown loses to Dartmouth and Cornell loses to Princeton, then Penn, Cornell, and Brown will all be 1-1 versus each other. The next tie-breaker is record versus the highest seed, Princeton. Brown has beaten Princeton and in this scenario Cornell would have lost to Princeton, so Brown would get in. If Brown loses to Dartmouth, Cornell beats Princeton then Brown would be left out because they lost the head-to-head versus Penn. If Brown doesn't make it in, then I would think Georgetown makes it into the NCAAT over them.
- Penn has a game against UVA this weekend, so it could add a big boost to its tournament resume. The Quakers can potentially make it in if Brown loses to Dartmouth. However, if Cornell and Brown both lose, then Penn would be left out. Realistically, Penn has to win the AQ to have a shot to make the NCAAT, assuming they lose to UVA.
- Yale will make the IvyT no matter what.
MAAC
Conference Leader: Marist Red Foxes
Locks: None
Bubble Teams: None
- It is win the AQ or go home in the MAAC.
Northeast
Conference Leader: Saint Joseph's Hawks
Locks: None
Bubble Teams: None
- The Northeast is weak. It will come down to Hobart vs. Saint Joseph's in the NEC Championship game.
Patriot
Conference Leader: Navy Midshipmen (has the RPI and head-to-head edge over Colgate Raiders)
Locks: None
Bubble Teams: Navy, Loyola, Army, Colgate
- Honestly, I don't know who wins the AQ in this league. If things work out right, there is a chance the league gets an at-large bid, but it's a long shot
Southern
Conference Leader: Richmond Spiders (has the RPI edge over the Mercer Bears; the two teams have not played head-to-head yet)
Locks: None
Bubble Teams: None
- Richmond should probably win the conference and be sent to the slaughter in the NCAAT.