Of course, the latest Nerlens Noel furor is over a tweet where he asked for confirmation of Fab's declaration for the NBA draft. I think, at least, the tweet confirms Noel's deal-breaker. He's going to go where there's a spot he can start at C right away. I'm prolly reading too much into this, but follow me on this one. Look at his final 3 schools; Kentucky, Syracuse and Georgetown. Kentucky has Davis, who is 99% going pro and has been since he stepped onto campus in Lexington. Syracuse had Fab who was up in the air until his most recent suspension. G'Town had Henry Sims, who is a graduating senior. This decision is like last call at a bar.
So, here's the way I see it. Again, Noel wants to go where he's going to start right away. G'Town is his safety school. Sims is gone no matter what, so if Noel REALLY wanted to go there, he would have given a verbal already. But since he knows there's a spot for him regardless, he can let them marinate. They're always available on the very off chance that both Fab and Davis come back to school. Kind of like a booty-call of questionable attractiveness that you go to as a last resort when nothing else better works out.
To me, Kentucky has to be his second choice for a similar reason. Though not official, Davis staying in school would be an even bigger shock than Fab or Dion coming back to Syracuse. So Noel could have chosen UK early too, with only the most miniscule of chances that he'd have to compete for a starting spot. UK is the hottest available girl in the bar that you take home simply because you couldn't get with the hottest.
Syracuse, though, is the only place where an open spot in the middle was really in doubt. Sure, there's a good chance Fab would have left even without the eligibility trouble, but it was never as sure a bet as Davis until recently. So, the fact that Noel has waited all this time to commit or give a verbal points to Syracuse being his first choice. It's the last place that the starting C spot has freed up. Noel knew he had plenty of time to decide and waited until his first choice, Syracuse, had the open spot he wanted. Syracuse is the hot chick that you take home after kicking her BF in the balls.
I realize that I'm talking myself into this and am likely setting myself up for disappointment. But, in a weird way, it makes sense.