Not a Stat Geek- We Don't Need No Stinkin' Rebounds

by FeloniousPhunk on Jan 18, 2012 1:38 PM EST in Syracuse Basketball

Fellow Nunesian Upstait posted a link to a great article over at Ballin' is a Habit that addressed Syracuse's lack of defensive rebounding and the effect it might have on the Orange's ability to make a deep NCAA tournament run. It's no secret that Syracuse, statistically speaking, is a mediocre rebounding team at best. They're T-93rd in the nation at 36.6 RPG. Even worse, they are the sole owner of 210th place in defensive rebounds per game with an even 23.0.

Against struggling Pittsburgh on Monday, the Orange allowed the Panthers to grab 18 offensive rebounds and were -14 total on the boards. Clearly this means that Syracuse can't make a deep tournament, right? Surely a paltry +1.3 rebounding margin for the season is going to bite the Orange at the wrong time.

Many of the comments on Upstait's FanPost brought up an interesting point: Syracuse doesn't get a high number of defensive rebounds because those rebounds simply aren't available. Much has been made of the fact that the Orange lead the nation in steals and turnover margin, but how does that correlate to overall defensive efficiency and the ability to win games despite apparent inability to clear the defensive glass?

This week: We Don't Need no Stinkin' Rebounds

Of all the defensive statistics available, points allowed per possession is best able to quantify the totality of Syracuse's defensive effort. It takes into account any situation where an opponent fails to get points; steals, opponents' dead ball turnovers, defensive rebounding, shots blocked out of bounds, etc. It'll even cover a situation where, say, Fab forces threes misses inside before Syracuse can finally corral a rebound. After all, offensive rebounds surrendered aren't what really matters. An offensive rebound is just the potential for another basket. Syracuse, though, tends not to let opponent's take advantage of those opportunities. Consider the following.

Syracuse holds opponents to 0.89 points per possession, a number that has remained consistent throughout the season. That's good for 13th in the country. The low of 0.74 occurred against an over-matched non-conference opponent (Manhattan) and the high values of 0.89 occurring against more formidable Big East teams Marquette, Villanova and Pittsburgh. The upward trend in opponents' points per possession isn't surprising or alarming. It's to be expected as the year goes on and the Orange play better teams. The remarkable consistency, though is key, especially when compared to Syracuse's offensive efficiency. Syracuse scores 1.18 points per possession, 4th in the country. That's a differential of .29 points per possession. So, essentially, every time the ball changes hands three times, Syracuse gains a point. Combine that with the fact that the Orange average 1.7 possessions per minute and that's about a point every two minutes.

All this is done while playing exactly the same average number of possessions (68) on both offense and defense. So for all the talk of steals, blocks and forced turnovers, Syracuse doesn't end up with possession of the ball any more than their opponents. They're just extremely efficient with those possessions. On the other hand, for a team that is ranked fifth to last in Division I in offensive rebounds surrendered (14.2 per game), the Orange do a tremendous job of preventing opponents from converting scoring opportunities.

It could be argued that no team in the country that is more efficient overall than Syracuse. There is no team that is ranked above the Orange in both offensive and defensive points per possession.

So, what does it all mean?

For one, the obvious. Syracuse can, and needs to, improve on the defensive glass. While giving up offensive rebounds hasn't hurt them so far, it goes without saying that the fewer shots the Orange give opponents, the better. Second, it gives quantifiable credence to what we've seen out of this Syracuse squad. Their success is based on defense that not only gets stops, but sets up opportunities for easy offense. The Orange opening the game against Pittsburgh with three dunks within the first ten seconds of the shot clock isn't luck or an accident. Along the same lines, Syracuse's chances at a deep tourney run are increased by their efficiency.

Winning six in a row against the best college basketball has to offer requires that the most be squeezed out of every second of every game. Syracuse's game is predicated on that very concept, making them a prime Final Four candidate.

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Here's how the rebounding ranks line up for the rest of the season

ND is 213th in rebounds
Cincy is 156th in rebounds
-—Wvu is 46th in rebounds
St johns is 153rd in rebounds
G’town is 99th in rebounds
-—Uconn is 43rd in rebounds
-—Ville is 25th in rebounds
Rutgers is 125th in rebounds
USF is 236th in rebounds

6 games left against teams we are ranked ahead of in rebounds, 5 games left against teams we are ranked behind in rebounds.

Of the 3 teams(ville,uconn,wvu) who rank ahead of us in rebounds, none are ranked higher in PPG, Assists and FG%

One reason Ville is so high in rebounds, they are 190th in FG%

You keep chanting one more year, I thought college was four years

by PointBlankPeriodPeriod on Jan 18, 2012 2:03 PM EST reply actions

Nice breakdown

I see a lot of talk about improving the defensive rebounding. I’m not enough of a hoops expert to know this – how much improvement can we actually make without sacrificing some other aspect of what we are doing well? I guess I mean if we have more guys crash the boards does that cut down on the breaks and if so is it a net gain (increased defensive eff vs lower off efficiency)? Are the guys who are supposed to rebound consistently out of position? Does trying to block everything in sight mean Fab is in worse place to get defensive rebounds, but that said defensive rebounds might have instead been a made FGA without his pressure?

F#&% the Big East

by dacj501 on Jan 18, 2012 2:13 PM EST reply actions

The zone

It’s notoriously difficult to get defensive rebounds when playing a zone defense like we do. This is especially true with our big guys (read: Fab) going for (and getting) blocks and challenging shots. Like you mention, crashing the boards more would lead to better defensive efficiency and less run-outs which might be something used as an in-game adjustment in a tight game where we’re getting beat up on the boards. I don’t necessarily think it’s something that JB would want to do for every game because so far it hasn’t hurt us too bad, as mentioned in the article. It’s all about the trade-off of defensive efficiency vs. offensive efficiency and I’m sure is something that’s evaluated in-game by Jimmy B and his staff.

by JB44ever on Jan 18, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I was going to make this same point.

It’s difficult to block out “your man” in the zone when you don’t always have a man to guard. When you’ve got a bunch of bodies crashing at once where the rebounds fall is the result of dumb luck not necessarily defensive prowess. The telling stat is how ’Cuse contests those second shots as opposed to, say, allowing easy putbacks.

Also you’re more likely to have long rebounds when you’re forcing outside shots. If the zone collapses to the board (less one outlet man) a long rebound favors the offense especially when you’re sending one defender on the break. Ultimately if those other stats hold (points per possession/possessions per game) defensive rebounds essentially become irrelevant.

I'm getting ready to change my birthplace to Syracuse.

by Seadog on Jan 18, 2012 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I don't think

I’d ever go so far as to call defensive rebounding irrelevant. No matter how many steals Syracuse gets, cleaning the glass is still going to be the #1 way they gain possession. But the overall efficiency of the defense does mitigate an inherent weakness in the zone.

"If I ain't gonna be part of the greatest, I gotta be the greatest myself." Busta Rhymes

by FeloniousPhunk on Jan 18, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

I said "if those other stats hold"

meaning in the simplest terms if we maintain that .29 point advantage per possession rebounding becomes irrelevant. We could be plus or minus on the defensive glass and still hold that stat and by definition we’re probably winning most, if not all, of our games.

I'm getting ready to change my birthplace to Syracuse.

by Seadog on Jan 18, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not disagreeing with you

Just saying that you can’t dismiss rebounding altogether.

"If I ain't gonna be part of the greatest, I gotta be the greatest myself." Busta Rhymes

by FeloniousPhunk on Jan 18, 2012 7:21 PM EST up reply actions

Part of the lack of rebounding

Comes from the fact that, for the most part, only 3-4 players are on the boards. By design, at least one guard hangs back to start the break. So, you’re right, it’s the risk/reward of playing the way the Orange do. Same with what you mentioned about Syracuse being a leader in blocks. Going for a block usually puts a defender in poor position to rebound.

All that being said, rebounding is primarily about one thing: effort. Sure, there are things that can be learned that will make a person a better rebounder, but if they don’t have the desire to go up and get the ball, then nothing else matters. That’s what Fab’s main issue was earlier this season. If he didn’t get a rebound, it was almost like he thought, “It’s OK, I’ll get the next one.” He can’t think like that. He has to think that every miss belongs to him, and he’s done that recently. The same goes for the rest of the team. They need to WANT those rebounds. Will that alone make Syracuse a top rebounding team? No. But it’ll certainly help.

"If I ain't gonna be part of the greatest, I gotta be the greatest myself." Busta Rhymes

by FeloniousPhunk on Jan 18, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions

The only thing

I love the piece, but the only issue is that our lack of defensive rebounds (total) is not the real issue. It’s our Defensive Rebounding percentage. We only grab 61.9% of our defensive rebounding opportunities. That’s not 210th nationally, that’s (gulp) 334th.

by Mike I. on Jan 18, 2012 2:53 PM EST reply actions

That and our relative inability to get to the line are our only glaring weaknesses.

by Mike I. on Jan 18, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

I hear what you're saying

When opponents DO get a shot off, Syracuse doesn’t rebound misses nearly as well as it should. But that’s why I mentioned the uber-specific hypothetical of Fab forcing consecutive misses and then ‘Cuse finally coming away with a board. That happens a lot. So, each one of those misses counts against Syracuse’s defensive rebounding %, but the end result is the same as a steal or a block or a defensive board after one shot: no points. That’s why I think the point/possession figures are a better measure. So long as no points are scored, it doesn’t really matter how it happens.

I’ll totally agree with you on getting to the FT line, though. I’ll say that part of the reason is due to the nature os Syracuse’s game. Run outs are less likely to drawn fouls than half-court play. I’d expect FT attempts to rise as the season goes on. Also, when you’re consistently beating teams by double digits, there’s not so much call for teams to foul at the end of games. I expect that to change as well. But yeah, forcing the action on offense and getting into the bonus early will be critical come tourney time.

"If I ain't gonna be part of the greatest, I gotta be the greatest myself." Busta Rhymes

by FeloniousPhunk on Jan 18, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

I do like PPP

but at the same time, the better teams we will be playing come tourney time, and even coming up on the schedule, will take better advantage of second chances on the offensive end.

Also, I keep looking at our FT Rate on KenPom.com and getting worried. At least we are hitting our FT’s when we do get to the line this year (above 70%!!) unlike in years past.

by JB44ever on Jan 18, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions

Agree

Total rebounds shows nothing. Villanova is somewhere in the top half of total rebounds because they miss a ton of shots. That percentage is alarming. Giving up second chances to teams unable to pu them away is one thing. Giving up second chances to an Indiana, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Xavier in a sweet 16 game is something totally different.

I would prefer this article uses percentages and not totals. Kenpom’s rate usage is a much better indicator if we’re going to start having discussion about statistics.

by krackatoan on Jan 18, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

Great read.

This is something I have been championing in recent weeks. Yes, our rebounding could be much better, but that poor rebounding is part of a defensive package that works quite well at limiting scoring. I think Fab’s blocking prowess, while losing him some rebounds, is causing poor shots even when he doesn’t get the actual block. I’m not going to sit here and say I’m fine with bad rebounding numbers, but when viewed as part of an overall defense I am not terribly concerned. Look at that Ballin’ Is A Habit post and look at the chart they posted. Our rebounding is poor when compared to other Final Four teams for sure, but look at the steal and block percentages. We are far away better there than any other Final Four team on that chart.

Clear eyes, full bologna sandwiches!

by NOLACuse on Jan 18, 2012 3:10 PM EST reply actions

if you consider...

our high forced turnover percentage relative to the average, and use that against our subpar defensive rebounding, im fairly certain we’d come out ahead.

that being said itd be nice to grab a few more boards for sure.

http://threeputtbogeys.blogspot.com/2011/10/syracuse-basketball-preview.html

by gimmealoosey on Jan 18, 2012 3:38 PM EST reply actions

Defensive Efficency > Rebound difference

Seeing a lower than 0.90 ppp (pts per possession) means a lot more to me, and really tells how good that D is versus Defensive rebounds or rebound margin.

Go Orange(men)!

by SUmonkey on Jan 18, 2012 11:20 PM EST reply actions

The thing is

If our DR doesn’t go up, our Efficiency will against superior opponents.

by Mike I. on Jan 18, 2012 11:49 PM EST up reply actions

Except if Steals and/or Blocks go up instead

Hence, DRs are nice but not required to win.

Go Orange(men)!

by SUmonkey on Jan 19, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions

Like I said to Seadog

While its clear that Syracuse’s lack of defensive rebounding isn’t the liabilty it might seem to be, defensive rebounding is still important. For all the steals and turnovers forced, if the Orange (or any team) give up a bucket every time a shot is attempted, they’re going to lose.

"If I ain't gonna be part of the greatest, I gotta be the greatest myself." Busta Rhymes

by FeloniousPhunk on Jan 19, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions