The Go-To-Guy Argument
Watching Doug Gottleib make a fool out of himself in declaring Perry Jones III a "go-to guy" last night got me thinking. Well, first of all, I was surprised to find out that Jones averages 14.2 PPG, a mere 0.5 PPG more than Kris Joseph, who is so clearly not a go-to guy in Gottleib's mind. Then I started thinking about how other teams' supposed go-to guys stacked up against Syracuse.
Here are the stats of the top two scorers in PPG for the top 10 in the AP poll. Syracuse's top guy ranks last among all of these teams, so clearly Gottleib is right. I mean, the 0.3 PPG more from Doron Lamb from Kentucky is going to be the difference int he National title game when UK wins by a score of 72.3-72. Man, that ones gonna hurt. Sorry guys.
Kentucky
-Doron Lamb (30.4 mins) – 14.0 PPG
-Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (31.3 mins) – 13.4 PPG
Baylor
-Perry Jones III (31.2 mins) – 14.2 PPG
-Quincy Acy (28.6 mins) – 12.4 PPG
Duke
-Austin Rivers (29.5 mins) – 13.8 PPG
-Seth Curry (29.6 mins) – 12.5 PPG
Missouri
-Marcus Denmon (32.6 mins) – 17.8 PPG
-Kim English (31.7 mins) – 14.6 PPG
Ohio State
-Jared Sullinger (28.0 mins) – 17.3 PPG
-William Buford (32.3 mins) – 15.2 PPG
Kansas
-Thomas Robinson (30.6 mins) – 17.8 PPG
Tyshawn Taylor (32.2 mins) – 16.2 PPG
North Carolina
-Harrison Barnes (26.0 mins) – 16.8 PPG
-John Henson (27.7 mins) – 14.4 PPG
Michigan State
-Draymond Green (32.8 mins) – 15.8 PPG
-Keith Appling (29.0 mins) – 12.9 PPG
Georgetown
-Jason Clark (30.7 mins) – 15.4 PPG
-Hollis Thompson (30.8 mins) – 14.6 PPG
Syracuse
-Kris Joseph (29.5 mins) – 13.7 PPG
-Dion Waiters (22.4 mins) – 13.1 PPG
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FWIW, not all ESPN Pundits feel this way....
Jay Williams tweeted last night something along the lines of “I hate when people say Syracuse doesnt have go to guys, they have MULTIPLE, and Dions draft stock is RISING”
by OrangeinJersey on Jan 17, 2012 11:13 AM EST reply actions
Go-to guy
Isn’t necessarily a top scorer. I prefer the term “playmaker”, because it’s a guy whose hands you want the ball in to make a play when you need it. This might be contradictory but, to me, it’s Dion and Scoop, depending on the situation. Both have an uncanny ability to get into the lane pretty much at will. To me, that’s the key thing that a go-to guy needs to have, the ability to put pressure on the opposing D by being a threat in the key area. But then, the two split. Dion has the size, skill and demeanor to get off (and often make) clutch shots in the lane. Scoop has much better vision and is more adept at passing out of that situation, though he can make a tough layup as well.
I’m prolly gonna get murdered for this, but I’m going with Scoop as my preference. When it comes to making difficult shots in the lane, I think both Scoop and Dion are on a par. Dion is more poweful and athletic, but Scoop finishes around the rim very well for a more earthbound player. And I like the added dimension of Scoop’s willingness to pass. It’s something I noticed about him from his freshman year. His game is to drive with the intent to pass. In the past, he’s hoisted shots because there were few options for real finishers around him. And, in a way, that’s helped him. He’s accustomed to taking and making big shots. But the improvement of everyone else around him has given him the opportunity to dish instead, making him that much more dangerous. I know most will disagree, but I like Scoop in that situation.
"If I ain't gonna be part of the greatest, I gotta be the greatest myself." Busta Rhymes
by FeloniousPhunk on Jan 17, 2012 11:25 AM EST reply actions
Scoop is a not a bad choice.
Experience is never a bad choice. I feel like Dion garners much more attention when driving the lane. People tend to watch Scoop thinking he will dish. If and when Dion learns that 2-3 guys are open every time he drives because the defense collapses on him, I just want him to dish to the open player. Any of our top 5 can and should be able to make open shots no matter the situation.
Cuse fan in ACC country.
I'd take it one step farther
Who is the guy that you WANT to have the ball down the stretch.
Consider JS. I don’t even want him shooting now. I definitely don’t want him shooting in a big moment. He is just not good when there is something on the line. He is the opposite of that guy among the guards-small forwards.
Down the stretch of a game, I am almost thinking Scoop too. We saw last night two or three chances where Waiters could have just made a pass to get a bucket, but he wanted to score himself and the result was free throws. Scoop at least is willing to pass, especially this year. Sometimes that is the best play. We just need him to keep avoiding the terrible decisions of last year. I can live with missed results… it’s the decision-making that he needed to work on.
In any event, Joseph, Dion, and Scoop all made big baskets last night at various points though. Triche has had some big moments this year. And Fair has had his moments too.
I think that the ESPN commentary is a legit point though. We do not have a McNamara or Melo that you most definitely want to shoot when the money is on the line. Remember 1996 where Wallace hit that huge shot to keep us alive? You need that in March. It is entirely possible that nobody on the team has the make-up to be that person… not only wanting to take it… but the near certainty that (a) they will make the right decision; and (b) will convert it.
Nobody really knows the answer. We’ll know when the season is over though.
Dictated, but not read.
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I was thinking about this last night, but, I think we really do have multiple go-to guys.
Multiple guys who would want the ball at a big moment and who I would feel comfortable with taking a big shot. Dion, Kris and Scoop all qualify. Fair down low I trust to put it in the hoop. Melo on a lob I trust to bring it down. Our “guy” is the open man and I don’t think that’s a bad thing at all. Dion, Kris, Scoop and Fab all made big plays down the stretch last night.
And for what it’s worth, I think Dion is the likeliest candidate for the type of player you are talking about.
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That's kind of where I'm split
If you want a situation where somone has to go 1-on-1 for a do or die bucket, I’m going with Dion. He’s just a flat out better scorer. Like I said before, can get to the rim at will, which sets up everything else. He can jab step and shoot. He can drive and pull up. He can take it hard to the hole and get a bucket and/or foul. Scoop doesn’t have that variety in his game. He’s a decent shooter off the catch and can get to the rim, but he’s not as good shooting off the dribble. That extra dimension is why, if I need a bucket with under 10 seconds, Dion’s my guy.
I guess this is how I’d put it best. If the game is tied, I want Scoop, who will put the whole team in the best position to make a play for the win. If they’re down, I want Dion because I trust him most, individually, to get that one bucket. Does that make sense?
"If I ain't gonna be part of the greatest, I gotta be the greatest myself." Busta Rhymes
by FeloniousPhunk on Jan 17, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
I hardly think Wallace jacking a desperation three
was the ideal play they had in mind against Georgia… but point taken.
What made 2003 so special, and what makes Melo so special, is that he is so gifted at drawing contact and getting to the free throw line consistently. (Chris McManus was saying this on UFR yesterday, I said this a few years ago re: Wes Johnson too.) This team doesn’t have that guy you can get the ball to when the game’s on the line and you KNOW he’s going to either score, get to the line, or both. (Kris isn’t that kind of player, I think Dion’s learning to do it but it takes time.) That’s not to say this team can’t find other ways to win, though.
It's the most bullshit thing I've seen in thirty years.
by Girardi Party on Jan 17, 2012 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
go-to-"guys" argument
maybe the fact that we’re watching a team with multiple options has even the so-called experts confused. perhaps with the game on the line we’ll see a lineup that includes 3 guards and 2 forwards. kinda like a “hands” team in football. that lineup, i think, would be Dion, Scoop, Triche, KJ, and Fair. Yes, it’d be a small lineup and a ton of height and length would be sacrificed in such a scenario, but we’re playing what if here so in my scenario, Boeheim has just called timeout and the game is tied or SU trails by 1 and there are 20-25 seconds left. Melo has fouled out and he’s put out his most reliable free throw shooters and ball handlers (the guards) and 2/3 of his most reliable/athletic forwards. he’d call 2 plays, one would be primary, and if that play couldn’t get made the secondary play (say, a jumpshot from 8-10 feet by Fair or Triche) would be the backup plan. scoop or dion would have the ball initially. basically, by having more than one “go-to-guy” there are multiple end-game options. yes, i rambled, sorry.
I think that's exactly what he'd do
In fact, he did it last night!
When they had one last possession before the half, he played a “no-centers” lineup. Can’t remember if it was Southerland or Fair in there, but Waiters, Triche and Scoop were all there. I think it may have been Joseph and Southerland, but I could be wrong.
If all you need is offense you need to get your best offensive players on the court. Fair is every bit as good an offensive rebounder (probably better) than Fab, so you don’t even sacrifice the second chance with him in there.
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by Lots of Pulp on Jan 17, 2012 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Boeheim was subbing offense for defense a lot near the end
I think it was mainly to get better ball handlers & better FT shooters out there.
Boeheim was also rotating centers after made FTs to give our press more time to setup. I thought that was a nice touch.
Shut up brain or I'll stab you with a Q-tip
I noticed that, too
I haven’t been to many games, but I have no recollection of him doing it that often before.
Depth strikes again
In most years he didn’t have enough players he trusted at all, much less trusted enough to play critical possessions in an offense/defense substitution situation.
"If I ain't gonna be part of the greatest, I gotta be the greatest myself." Busta Rhymes
by FeloniousPhunk on Jan 17, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Can't
look at stats to figure out your go to guy. Perry Jones is far and away Baylor’s go to guy in crunch time. He made all the plays late against K-State, BYU, and WVU to get them those wins. The offense flows through him late. Gottleib was right on (as usual when it comes to college hoops team knowledge) to call PJ III the go to guy.
Sullinger, Barnes, Robinson, Clark are all obvious go to guys. It’s who the offense flows through when the game gets late. Trying to quantify it by using points per game is silly.
By the way. Let’s remember 2010. This argument came up then. Wes couldn’t create off the dribble, the bigs weren’t good enough passers,Rautins was more of a screen guy, and the PGs couldn’t make great decisions. What happened? Down the stretch against Butler, Rautins is firing up off balance 3s. This is a very valid point analysts bring up. Waiters is going to be the guy this team runs through at crunch time because he is the only one that can get to the rim with any consistency. They needed that guy in 2010 and didn’t have it.
Good find
I took it a step further since points per game is directly impacted by minutes played (as you show). The top five in points per 40 minutes?
Harrison Barnes 25.8
Jared Sullinger 24.7
Dion Waiters 23.4
Thomas Robinson 23.3
Marcus Denmon 21.8
Add in the fact the only guards in the top five are Dion and Demon and Waiters averages 5.0 assists per 40 to Denmon’s 3.3.
Dion is dynamite with the ball in his hands and is among the best players in the league. IMO, the only thing keeping him out of POY consideration is that he’s a reserve and doesn’t get the minutes.
I've been involved in a number of cults, both as a leader and a follower. You have more fun as a follower. But you make more money as a leader.
It depends on the situation
If you’re expecting the other team to foul a guy and send him to the line, I want Triche 8 days out of the week to be the guy. If you need a 3, I want Scoop to drive the lane and kick it out to KrisJo as the first option Triche as the second option and Dion as the third option. If you want a 2 pointer, I want the ball in Dion’s hands, with an option to kick it to CJ. If you need a guy to run the length of the floor and take a circus shot, I’d want Scoop or Dion to do it.
The lack of go-to talk is bullshit. You know why? You can double team the other team’s go to guy because you know he’s going to take the shot in that situation. Who are you going to double team at Syracuse when it comes down to the final minutes? Dion or KrisJo, but in that situation, I have complete confidence in a wide open Scoop OR Triche OR CJ OR whatever Dion/KrisJo wasn’t double teamed. And in a one-on-one situation — fugghedabout it. Nearly all of those players are really good at creating their own shot (I wouldn’t want to totally open the floor up to CJ or KrisJo to drive the lane because they’re not the best ballhandlers, but you get the idea).
If you're going to be stupid, you're going to have to be tough
The GTG Argument
is less about whether or not we have a player who meets the requirements of a GTG, but more about the idea that “having a go-to guy” is REQUIRED to be a great basketball team. That’s what’s behind the criticism.
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