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2012/13 Starters and Line-Ups

Its raining, I'm bored and Syracuse sports news seems rather slow today. Reading articles about Dion Waiters had me thinking about next years starters and potential line-ups.

We stand to lose 2 players to graduation next year, point guard Scoop Jardine and small forward Kris Joseph. You will both sorely be missed. As far as early entrants to the NBA draft I think Dion Waiters is the only real threat. The question remains, will he leave this year to be a first round pick (I see him going in the latter half of the first) or next year to be a lottery pick? I don't think Fab is a threat to leave, unless he puts on a show through conference play. Even then he still needs another year of development.

As of right now we also stand to add two players. Dajuan Coleman, Syracuse's native son, will be joining us next year along with Jerami Grant, a top 50 recruit. We can also welcome back Trevor Cooney after his redshirt year. I'm not sure if there are any other recruits with high interest or what our scholarship situation looks like but for all intents and purposes lets leave these 3 as contributing newcomers.

This leaves us with 2 scenarios coming into the 2012-2013 season. An Orange team with Dion Waiters and a Dionless Orange Squad. Both good, one is clearly better.

Star-divide

Lets start with the roster (starters in bold) assuming Dion stays

Guards: Dion Waiters, Brandon Triche, Michael Carter-Williams, Trevor Cooney

Forwards: Rakeem Christmas, CJ Fair, James Southerland, Jerami Grant

Dajuan Coleman (I could realistically see him playing both the PF and C positions)

Center: Fab Melo, Baye Keita

My first inclination in picking starters for this team was to ask "Who's our PG and SG?" and thats where I came to this conclusion. Both Dion and Brandon, straddle the fence as far as their true position, they are both combo guards. And granted I love the Brandon/Dion back court this season, I'm not sure if its a viable starting line-up, because it seems more effective situationally. If JAB plans to start a true point guard, it would have to be MCW, but he certainly won't get the start over 3-year starter Brandon Triche, which leaves us with the real issue: I don't see Dion staying if he's not a starter next year. I'm also not sure how comfortable JAB would be starting two combo guards. Does Triche go back to playing point like his freshmen year, undoing two years of playing SG opposite of Scoop? Of course Dion could just bolt and the issue is solved. Without Dion, MCW and Triche become the clear cut starters at guard.

Onto the forwards, this seemed pretty cut and dry. With a year under his belt Rakeem Christmas will slowly start to become a force for the Orange. For Rak, to be a real starter I feel he needs to do a few things. A couple things all freshmen need to do, get in D1 basketball shape and learn the college game at your position (in this case the zone forward position), this is essentially what Fab had to do in the offseason. I think Christmas also needs to show a bit of passion and aggressiveness, there is no doubt last year that Fab was passionate, but I'm failing to see that edge in Christmas, so if he can find that he'll be just fine.

Honestly I can't wait to see what CJ Fair continues to add to his game. I know I'm playing the announcer bingo card, but with another year to develop his outside jumper and being the starting small forward for the Orange, I'm expecting a break-out year, or atleast a steady increase in production, like we have already seen from CJ. Its great to have a player with a high basketball IQ who has the athletic gifts and mindset to get it done. I can wait for 2 more years of CJ.

Starting center...easy. Fab Melo will continue to learn the game and become a force for one more year in the Big East. He'll be gone after his junior campaign. Like they always say, "You can't teach height." It's going to be fun having the most dominate big man in the country for a year though.

Pretty good starting line-up, obviously a lot better with Dion, but lets head over to that bench. Its oh so deep again! (TWSS)

If Dion is starting that leaves MCW and Trevor Cooney coming off the bench for the guards, if Dion leaves, MCW moves into the starting role, leaving only Trevor Cooney to spell the guards. I feel like Dion is essential to our guard depth next year. MCW is going to be a very good player. He has already bought into the defense and will slowly start to find his range. I'm excited that his arms will be atop our zone for a few more years. It will be fun to have our token lights-out white guy suited up for the Orange again. Trevor Cooney is next in line coming after the likes of Marius Janulis, G-Mac, and Andy Rautins (Did you know his Dad played for Syracuse?), and he's learning from the best of them. As long as Trevor is soaking in every ounce of knowledge coming from Coach Gerry's mouth, he'll be a contributor.

Forwards coming off the bench include James Southerland and Jerami Grant. I'll be the first to tell you I had little faith in Southy coming off the bench this year, his silky stroke did not overcome his inability to rebound and play defense last year. He has improved greatly in all departments and I'm looking forward to more steady improvement and highlight reel dunks next year. Jerami Grant seems like another long rangy intelligent recruit the Orange have been able to snag in years past (I'm thinking both Joseph and Fair). If he takes plays out of Fair and Joseph's books and goes into his freshmen year willing to provide a spark and do the dirty work, he'll be all right, but he will be the last forward off the bench I believe.

This brings me to my next enigma, DaJuan Coleman, not so much of an enigma but where can we put this large body to create the most havoc on the court. He's a large body in the mold of Arinze Onuaku, but will possess a great deal more basketball skill as a freshmen. At 6'10" he has the height to play center but seems skilled and athletic enough to play power forward as well. But at 270 lbs, Dajuan would take up a lot of real estate in the middle of that zone spelling Fab. It will be interesting to see what JAB does with Coleman because other than Christmas we lack a true power forward as CJ Fair will be playing more of a true small forward role next year without Joesph. That is unless....

(And here's where I make my most preposterous or possibly brilliant observation to date.)

Instead of creating a log jam at center with Fab, Coleman and Keita....wait for it....wait for it....Jim Boeheim makes the decision to move Baye Keita to power forward in the off season a la Hakim Warrick. Keita is long, rangy, athletic, and I believe smart enough to learn the position, it would also get him out of the middle of the zone where he has often been over powered this season by bigger centers and forwards. The big man rotation becomes very interesting at this point. We have 4 players who can play in the middle of the zone, and only one of them is incapable of stepping out to the wing position (Fab), the three other big men could either play the wing and middle positions in the zone.

A very deep bench indeed. Our only real lack of depth would exist at the guard spot if Dion decides to leave, but we are essentially playing with three guards during tough games this year, so maybe not a huge problem. We could also pick up another guard in recruiting with a late commitment. The forward and centers positions seem stocked with plenty of firepower. Im excited either way. So here's an ideal recap in my eyes:

(Starters in bold, bench in order off the bench)

Guards: Brandon Triche, Dion Waiter, Michael Carter-Williams, Trevor Cooney

Small Forwards: CJ Fair, James Southerland, Jerami Grant

Power Forwards: Rakeem Christmas, Baye Keita

Centers: Fab Melo, DaJuan Coleman

So thats my look at the 2012-2013 Syracuse Basketball team. I know its a long ways away and we are in the midst of a great season, but I was bored. We've got the #1 team in the land right now and by the looks of next year the Syracuse Orange will be a powerhouse for years to come. Watch out ACC, when we are arrive we won't be greeting you with a Sunkist it will be Orange Crush!

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Nice breakdown

I’ll try not to make my comments a FanPost within a FanPost, but here’s how I see it.

I think Dion stays, for a few reasons. For one, he’s a late first rounder at best. It doesn’t make much sense for a soph to leave unless he’s a lottery lock. Along the same lines, he can still get better. This is not one of those situations where his draft stock will only go down. He can make himself into a lottery pick with one more year in Orange. And, third, he’s undersized for an NBA 2-guard. If he was 6-7 or 6-8, I think a team might take a flyer on him. But he’ll be giving up 3-4 inches to everyone he’s guarding. To me, Dion is a lot like Dwayne Wade. Their games are very similar; undersized SGs who make up for it in athleticism. Wade needed a few years at Marquette to figure out how to maximize his talent and mitigatate his height disadvantage. Dion is undergoing that process now. One more year, and he’ll be ready for the League.

As for the future PG situation, I see Triche as the starting PG. I think that PG is his natural position and he would excel there, especially with the teammates he’d have around him. Look how well he played as a frosh in 09-10. That being said, I’d expect MCW to be the first off the bench and to play significant minutes. And, really, Triche, Dion and MCW are all combo guards. They all have the skills to play both spots. It’s just a matter of them knowing what roles they play based on who’s on the floor with them.

The rest of the potential roster is pretty much self explanitory. CJ will slide in at the starting SF spot for KJ. Fab will be the starting C with BMK backing him up. The only real question is whether Rak or DC 2.0 will be the starting PF. I’d go with Rak, just based on experience, but DC could be one of those rare big guys who comes in and starts tearing up the league right away.

"If I ain't gonna be part of the greatest, I gotta be the greatest myself." Busta Rhymes

by FeloniousPhunk on Jan 10, 2012 1:56 PM EST reply actions  

Barring an epic collapse, I think Dion is gone.

His size is not going to change. He already uses it very well. He is coming off the bench now, which would make him a great guy to have on the bench for a very good NBA team. By showing the maturity this year, it will pay off dividends down the road. To me, that is a better career move than being a lottery pick stuck in a terrible place with no hope.

Dictated, but not read.

http://atlanticcoastconfidential.wordpress.com/

by ezcuse on Jan 10, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, we'll see

He does use his size well…in college. I could be mistaken, but the average NBA player is something like 6’9" and 240. The average college player is likely much smaller. So, as Jay Bilas would say, Dion has all the tools. I’m just not convinced that he knows best how to use them yet. And, as much as I stand by my Dion/D-Wade comparison, I think Wade is/was a better all-out athlete. To me, he’s like a mini LeBron. A freak. Dion certainly has athleticism, but I dunno if I’d put him at that level.

And as far as a career moves, I would tend to go the opposite way. For one, the lottery pick comes with more money. But even looking beyond that, no matter how bad management or coaching is, a player can’t develop if he never plays. So, I think that it’s better to get burn on a bad/mediocre lottery team than to get buried on the bench of, say, the Lakers or the Heat. Of course some situations are beyond salvageable from a team success standpoint (Minnesota, for example). But there’s nothing to say that a player can’t parlay good play on a bad team into a good career elsewhere. It happens all the time. But the key is getting PT.

"If I ain't gonna be part of the greatest, I gotta be the greatest myself." Busta Rhymes

by FeloniousPhunk on Jan 10, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think so either

But the NBA hasn’t been looking for finished products in 20 years. The fact that he is good and still has room to improve is that magic “upside” that causes NBA stock to surge.

If the size difference is that significant, spending another year playing against the shorter college players is not going to make any real difference. He’ll need to get to the NBA and begin working on it. He is playing 20-25 minutes now and doing just fine. There is no reason for even the best NBA teams to not find 20 minutes a game for him.

I hate when guys leave early selfishly… but I don’t mind it if they actually have a game that is close to being ready. It’s the guys that do nothing and then leave that bother me (i.e. Donte and his one-dimensional gunning, etc.). And last March, Waiters was the only guy who showed up against Marquette. I have no reason to expect something different this March. Some guys are just wired to rise to the occasion.

And I think his game translates well to the NBA—perhaps even more so than where he is now. Now that he has devoted himself to defense and is passing well, he has all the tools to be successful. If he does well in limited time for a great NBA team, someone will pay him.

Lest there be any doubt, JB is saying great things about Dion for a reason. Even he knows that this is likely it.

Dictated, but not read.

http://atlanticcoastconfidential.wordpress.com/

by ezcuse on Jan 10, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Suffice to say

It’s a close call. I tend to think that drafting primarily on upside is reserved for bigs (i.e. Greg Oden, Hasheem Thabeet) or wings with ridiculous athleticism and/or proportions. Those of the 40 inch vertical and 7 foot wingspan. Dion doesn’t have those things. Dion is going to make the League eventually, and I think he could be a very good player there. I just think that he’s going to do so by being a talented, smart basketball player, not because of anything written into his DNA. I wouldn’t be mad at Dion if he left. But he certainly has more to gain by staying, IMO.

"If I ain't gonna be part of the greatest, I gotta be the greatest myself." Busta Rhymes

by FeloniousPhunk on Jan 10, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't thikn Donte was ready for the Association either

and he was certainly a gunner, and porous on defense, but I don’t think its fair to say he “did nothing.” From his wikipedia page: In his freshman year of college, Greene started all 35 games he appeared in and led Syracuse in scoring with 17.7 points to go along with 7.2 rebounds per game. He became the first Syracuse freshmen since Carmelo Anthony to lead Syracuse in scoring, while setting a new SU freshmen record for 3-pointers in one season, notching 90, surpassing Gerry McNamara, who previously held the record with 85. Greene also led Syracuse with 57 blocks. He was named to the Big East All Rookie Team.

F#&% the Big East

by dacj501 on Jan 10, 2012 11:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Donte has been quoted as saying...

“I shoulda stayed in school at least another year”

by supgs on Jan 11, 2012 9:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Donte is kind of my case for drafting on upside

He was by no means ready for the League. But from a GMs standpoint, you’re drafting a 6’11 SF with a halfway decent shooting stroke. That’s a matchup nightmare for opponents. You want to have that guy, hoping he develops. But guys like Dion are a dime a dozen; scrappy slashers ranging from 6’4"-6’8". And, if I’m a GM, if all other factors are equal (scoring, shooting %, ast, stls, etc.) I’m taking the guy that’s bigger. Look at the situation with Andy and Landry Fields in NY. Both are essentially the same player with the same skill set. Fields is just the bigger, stronger guy, so he got the opportunity. I think Dion would run into the same issue. Even within his own team. Look at it this way. KJ is going to the draft. Say Dion goes also. They have basically the same skill sets (KJ is a better 3pt shooter and rebounder, DIon averages more stls and asts, so it balances out). So, if I’m a GM, I’m going with the bigger KJ. It just makes sense.

"If I ain't gonna be part of the greatest, I gotta be the greatest myself." Busta Rhymes

by FeloniousPhunk on Jan 11, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

KJ and Dion have completely different skill sets...

KJ is very talented but Dion just has that “it” factor about him. He’s not scared to take the last shot and like Boeheim stated, he’s virtually unguardable. The only thing Dion has to work on is his shooting and seeing how he has something resembling a jump-shot, that will be the easiest thing to work on Ex: Derrick Rose. I’m sick of fans saying Dion needs to get better just because we are selfish and want him back for another yr. I do agree though that Syracuse needs to make it far in the Tourney for Dion’s decision to leave to be validated.

by daleman on Jan 11, 2012 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, and if I’m an NBA GM I want someone who’s going to consistently score. KJ is just too soft and runs very hot and cold. Even Chad Ford from ESPN has been quoted saying that NBA GM’s are loving Dion.

by daleman on Jan 11, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think any player prefers to be a bench player and get paid less money

Everyone wants to be drafted as high as possible. I think a lot of what happens will depend on how we do in the NCAA tournament. If we go to the Final 4 then Dion will be getting a lot more attention and his draft stock should increase. I imagine it’d increase enough to where he’d probably make the jump. If we get upset early on then I think it’d benefit him to stay for another year.

by crouton on Jan 10, 2012 2:30 PM EST up reply actions  

If the season stays on course

Dion is gone and probably Fab also. You can’t think like a coach or a fan or a parent, you have to think like the player.

by Piety Hill on Jan 12, 2012 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Im starting to agree with you on Dion.

His performance last night was anything but professional. I’m not buying Fab leaving early. I know you can’t teach height but one more year and he becomes a beast in college and goes top 5.

Cuse fan in ACC country.

by petecarp on Jan 12, 2012 11:32 PM EST up reply actions  

For what it's worth

I think Dion going to the NBA is dependent on the Orange going to the Final Four this year. We make the Final Four or he has a continuous breakout in tourney season, and he goes. Those things don’t happen, he stays.

If he stays, Triche will be a little more the PG, I think. When he and Dion are on the floor together, he seems ready to slide into the role of the distributor. It will be a shame if he goes, but I think Trevor Cooney will be ready. For the little bit we saw in the pre-season, I thought he actually seemed more poised than MCW (although MCW probably fit our needs a little better this year).

The real interesting thing will be to see where Coleman goes (C or PF) and how it affects everyone else. I don’t see him usurping Melo’s spot, since it seems pretty difficult to learn that position in the middle of the zone. However, if Christmas is going to fight with him over playing time, Christmas might have to develop a jumper. I really hope we have room for Keita to get meaningful time, because I love Moose’s scrappiness, but he’s got some stiff competition, for sure.

At SF, I love the combo of CJ and Southerland. You have a guy who likes to play on the inside but can hit the outside shot, and a guy who loves to play on the perimeter but can (finally) bang on the inside for the rebound. You can give teams all kinds of trouble that way.

If you're going to be stupid, you're going to have to be tough

by FatK44 on Jan 10, 2012 7:36 PM EST reply actions  

I think Coleman will play forward.

It might end up being a battle for PF minutes, but I expect Rak to keep starting with a good amount of playing time for Coleman.

by Gregory Tuers on Jan 15, 2012 4:40 PM EST reply actions  

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