The Straight Dope On Ryan Nassib
by Pinker on Oct 11, 2011 1:50 PM EDT
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I have posted this twice since I wrote it up yesterday, I thought it might make for an interesting read on its own so I am going to post it here for comment. I think its tough to see the forest for the trees with Ryan. He is not the most impressive or commanding QB to watch during gameplay, but his statistics are creeping up to some pretty impressive levels. Here is the straight dope on Nassib, and a comparison to the three quarterbacks ahead of him on the Greatest Hits chart for Syracuse Football.
via t2.gstatic.com
Before anyone criticizes Ryan Nassib, two things need to be made clear:
1.) He is the best QB Syracuse has had since McNabb - easily surpassing RJ Anderson, Paulus, Robinson, Dantley, Patterson, and Nunes.
2.) In the next 1.5 seasons, he may be second only to McNabb in terms of performance during his career, based on the last 40 years of Syracuse QB history. He would surpass Marvin Graves and Don McPherson in total yardage and TD's if he stays on track.
Nassib is still quietly coming up the charts in the SU QB stat sheet. His two first-half touchdown passes at Tulane moved him past Troy Nunes into fourth on the SU career list. He now has 33 touchdowns."
Currently, Ryan Nassib has 4050 passing yards and 33 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns.
Marvin Graves:
Total passing yards : 8,466 yards
Passing Touchdowns: 48
All-time passing yardage leader at Syracuse (8,466), His 48 touchdown tosses rank second in program history.
Donovan McNabb:
Total passing yards : 8,389 yards
Passing Touchdowns: 77
Total rushing yards: 1,561 yards
Rushing touchdowns 19
Don McPherson:
Total passing yards : 5,812 yards
Passing Touchdowns: 46
Total rushing yards: 1,583 yards
Rushing touchdowns 18
All in all, Id say he has an excellent chance at passing McPherson, and probably catching up to Graves, but I certainly dont think he could get to Donovan’s superstar level – 77 touchdowns? Thats insane now that I look at that stat. So, behind McNabb, Nassib could more than likely end up the contender for our second best QB of the last 40 years.
Nassib would have to throw 2.5 touchdowns per game in every game for the rest of his career to even match McNabb, and I don’t think that’s happening. However, even if he doesn’t quite match the yardage, he could easily beat Graves and McPherson for passing TD’s, and I think its reasonable to think he could hit 7500-8000 passing yards in his career if he starts in every game until the end of next season. Its sick to think that those guys were ALL Heisman contenders and an NFL starter, so he would be in some pretty elite company. If you want to argue rushing touchdowns, and use that as a benchmark of a complete modern QB - I cant argue with you on that point. He's only got two, compared to 18-19 for McNabb, Graves and McPherson.
I guess in the end the more important stat is TDs than passing yards. Cause isn’t that the point of passing yards? So either way, Id say the kid has got a shot at ending up being something pretty special here at SU, baring meltdown or injury. For being an unheralded 2 star recruit (from rivals and scout) from the Philly suburbs, he is slowly starting to really impress.
Please use all these stats to rebuff all the Nassib haters out there at will.
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Good job Pinker
Definitely some food for thought.
Since the early 1990's I have not been able to get Mike Hopkins' bloody face out of my brain. I don't remember what game it was but I'll never forget that as my first memory of SU basketball. Mike Hopkins, bloody face, bloody nose, all for the love of Syracuse.
What about record?
To me, that is the most important stat.
As a starter, Nassib is 12-7. If this season goes well, he could end up 16-10 (3-3 regular season, and win the bowl). Add in a 9-4 next year, and 25-14.
Given where we have come FROM, that is pretty damn good. Who is the last QB to win over 60% of their games started?
McNabb was 35-14. But he had some serious weapons around him.
I wonder what McPherson’s record was? He finished 11-0-1, but things were positively .500 before then.
Dictated, but not read.
Overall records
Marvin Graves:
31-12-3
Don McPherson
23-9-1
Donovan McNabb
35-14
Ryan Nassib:
12-7 (current)
Here is a great link on the SU Athletics web site
http://www.suathletics.com/sports/2008/4/29/startingquarterbacksbyseason.aspx
These are all their official records from SU.
Thats the official recored from Syracuse Athletics
http://www.suathletics.com/sports/2005/5/31/dmcnabb.aspx
I did a double take as well. Those are really impressive numbers, especially when you compare him to QBs before and after.
You can see he took it on the run more and more with every year at QB, 2, 3, 6, 8 from his frosh-senior year.
I think someone needs to take fractions again
Paulus (4-8) .500.
by Rocket Ship Science on Oct 12, 2011 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Coach P SCREWED McNabb
He started getting some mention as Heisman candidate. But Paul thought it was more important to hand off to some tailbacks 25 or 30 times a game and let McNabb “air it our” 18 to 20 or so.
Sure we may have won the games but when you have a chance to get your program a Heisman you go for it. McNabb should have been throwing 25 to 30 times a game, and running half the other plays.
Huh?
Sure we may have won the games but when you have a chance to get your program a Heisman you go for it. McNabb should have been throwing 25 to 30 times a game, and running half the other plays.
Even McNabb would have wanted a National Championship over the Heisman Trophy. I don’t recall anyone else being frustrated by our dogged pursuit of wins at the expense of McNabb’s stats. The real issue for everyone is how we lost as many as 8 games with McNabb as a Jr/Sr?
We scored more points with McNabb as a Freshman than in any year after he graduated… and, with the exception of 1987, any year before he matriculated. In 1987, we scored 379 pts to 1995’s 375. In his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th years… we scored well over 400 points each season.
Interestingly, there were only two games during his tenure where we scored less than 10 pts. Both were AT Va Tech. We scored 30 points or more in 60% of his games. Unreal.
And even HE had some real flaky games.
Dictated, but not read.
Calling all stat nerds...
I like Nassib and agree he’s our best QB since McNabb, but at this point, to lump him up there with McNabb, Graves, or McPherson, is not only premature, it’s probably downright crazy.
There’s a reason why Baseball sabermetrics have more or less replaced traditional numbers (Wins, BA, HR, etc.) — because these stats, like Nassib’s, are super deceptive.
First and foremost, the Big East and our non-conference schedule are a shell of what they were when McNabb, Graves, and McPhereson played. If you play against inferior competition, your numbers look better. Second, we were an option team for years. Frankly, it’s nothing short of miraculous that those guys have the passing numbers they do in the system we ran. Football has changed. Pro-style schemes and teams pass more today.
I suppose the counter-argument would be that those QB’s benefitted from better talent around them than Nassib has. Baseball stats are much more individual, so it’s easier to develop formulas to account for this type of thing, but if sabermetric-type stats exist for college football,I still think they will show pretty definitively that Nassib, while solid, is definitely in a tier below those three elite QB’s.
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by I miss DIAP! on Oct 11, 2011 5:26 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
it's really hard to do advanced stats for college football
There’s just not good play by play data for all games out there, and even if there were, trying to connect 120 teams over 12 game schedules that usually contain an FCS game is… difficult. There have been some efforts for advanced team stats for college football (Football Outsiders has FEI and S&P+), and more complete numbers for the NFL, but I’m not aware of anyone doing advanced individual stats for the college game.
McPherson's schedule in 1987 was pretty weak
vs. Maryland (4-7) W 25 11
@ Rutgers (6-5) W 20 3
vs. Miami (Ohio) (5-6) W 24 10
@ Virginia Tech (2-9) W 35 21
@ Missouri (5-6) W 24 13
vs. Penn State (8-4) W 48 21
vs. Colgate (non-IA) W 52 6
@ Pittsburgh (8-4) W 24 10
@ Navy (2-9) W 34 10
vs. B. College (5-6) W 45 17
vs. West Virginia (6-6) W 32 31
vs. Auburn (9-1-2) T 16 16 @ New Orleans, LA Sugar Bowl
Dictated, but not read.
I agree with you completely
There are a lot of things I would define as more “intangible” in the game. Football stats are some of the hardest to compile and compare I feel. Mostly due to the fact that its such a team effort while the game is being played. A great QB is not a great QB unless he has at least one decent WR, or a somewhat decent offensive line. If the defense always gives up more points than he can score, he also doesnt look that hot.
And youre right – there is a much different attitude now as to how a quarterback plays the game than 25 or even 10 years ago really.
My argument is all we are really left with at the end of the day is stats. Admittedly, it will never really be an apples-to-apples comparison, but when you go by the numbers, Nassib is looking pretty good.
You're also right.
I was pretty young when McPhereson played, but I remember Graves and McNabb oh-so-well. Perhaps my eyeball test, comparing Nassib’s play to theirs, is making me want to discredit the stats we have (in favor of advanced stats that don’t exist).
I will say this on behalf of Nassib, excluding the Rutgers game, he has been as efficient of a QB as I can remember at Syracuse. The guy just doesn’t make many mistakes. And while he may not have the natural abilities of McNabb, Graves, or McPhereson, he seems to keep the Orange in games week in and week out, and usually gives us a chance to win. He’s a good QB. And maybe if Rob Conrad was picking up the blitzes for him and Marvin Harrison was running routes for him, he’s be great… I kind of doubt it… but then again, McNabb was nice to me when he worked as a host at Tully’s and has been my favorite athlete ever since, so I might have a bias.
For real-time 'Cuse banter, check me out at: http://twitter.com/#!/TeabagDunk
by I miss DIAP! on Oct 11, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I hear ya
I definitely felt the need to say this at the opening of the post:
I think its tough to see the forest for the trees with Ryan. He is not the most impressive or commanding QB to watch during gameplay
Thats my nod of agreement to everything you’re saying for sure. To watch, you wouldnt think he is anything special, but when you look at this stats, he’s doing a good job. Not Graves/McNabb good, but he is definitely the best we have had in a long while. I think he is pretty smart and he has gotten good passing on the run, which is definitely whats floating him.
I wish there were stats that reflected....
things like “catchable balls dropped”, “passes completed under duress”, “poorly thrown for no reason”, or maybe “checked off to the wrong play”…. there are so many variables, I can’t imagine NORMAL stats meaning much of anything!!
Advanced stats are finding their way into NFL talk (not on ESPN of course, but do they even count anymore).
But it seems a much harder thing to apply to college football just because of the sheer number of teams and players involved. I’m not really boned up on the advanced football stats, but I know they are out there and gaining popularity.
Clear eyes, full bologna sandwiches!
Right - "Incomplete Pass " could mean almost 4 things
1.) It was a poor throw by the QB
2.) It was a failed catch by the receiver
3.) There was a pass rush that forced the play (tossed away)
4.) There was heavy coverage causing the intended target to miss the ball (but no actual pass interference)
I think ESPN's QBR accounts for drops and other stuff
but then again, QBR said that Tim Tebow had a better game than Aaron Rodgers last week, so…
Wow, that's insane.
He was 4/10, 79 yds passing, 1TD…and if not for Brandon Lloyd making one of the best catches all season, you could have knocked off a completion and 20 yds.
To be fair, QBR is really just a measure of efficiency of success.
And in Tebow’s defense, even though Rodgers had the better game and is the better QB, Tebow did more in fewer touches than Rodgers did comparatively. Hence the better QBR. Passer rating is always coming up with some wacky comparisons itself. I remember when Joe Fields had an astronomical passer rating when he threw a 60 yard hail mary TD his freshman (sophomore?) year. It was his only pass of the game, so his college passer rating that day was like 900 or something.
Clear eyes, full bologna sandwiches!
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