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Bowl Projections, post-week 10 2010

Since last week's projections already baked-in the expectation that 'Bama would lose to LSU and TCU would beat Utah, there's a little less change from week-to-week at the top than you might think. Though this is the 'Boise gets hosed' edition of the projections.

BCS Bowls

BCS Title: Oregon (P10) vs. TCU (MWC/autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS AQ champ)
Rose: Ohio State (B10) vs. Stanford (at-large)
Sugar: Auburn (SEC) vs. Wisconsin (at-large)
Orange: Virginia Tech (ACC) vs LSU (at-large)
Fiesta:  Nebraska (B12) vs. Pitt (Big East)

Here's the rationale (such as it is, in this crazy season)

Oregon to the title game is a pretty conventional pick. I don't think the Ducks will lose this year. TCU has already passed Boise State, and should consolidate the #2 votes of people willing to vote for a non-AQ team after Alabama beats Auburn (I don't think Auburn can make the BCS title game with 1 loss this year), so TCU gets to play for the national championship before joining the Big East.

Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State end up in a three-way tie at 7-1 in the Big Ten; this ends up going all the way to BCS rankings for the tiebreaker, and sends Ohio State to the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin fans really don't like this, but the Buckeyes have more chances to impress the voters at the end of the year.

Virginia Tech wins the ACC because they always do (and they're the only team undefeated in ACC play right now).I have no idea who will in the Big 12; Nebraska gets an extremely tentative projection due to their head-to-head win over Oklahoma State (who looks to be the final Big 12 South champion).

Auburn wins the SEC despite losing the Iron Bowl. Even with the mad hatter's win over 'Bama, LSU needs two losses from Auburn to win the East, and will only get one. Auburn doesn't have the cachet to get to the title game with one loss and another undefeated AQ conference team around.

Although Pitt only suffers one more irrational loss down the line, everyone else in the Big East has two conference losses so the Panthers get the BCS bid..

With TCU in the BCS title game, the Rose does not have to select an eligible non-AQ team to play Ohio State, and so will feature a Big Ten/Pac 10 game if both conferences have eligible teams. Stanford should finish BCS eligible (heck, they should finish 11-1) after beating Arizona.

The Sugar Bowl selects Wisconsin to play Auburn, prompting cries of outrage from East Lansing and Boise.

The Orange Bowl selects LSU as the biggest draw remaining to face Virginia Tech, prompting even more cries of outrage from Boise.

And because Pitt has a relatively small fan base, they go to the Fiesta to face Nebraska.

Other Big East Bowls

Champs Sports Bowl: West Virginia. TCU's blowout win over Utah doess not mean ND has a chance against the Utes. Nor does ASU's narrow loss to USC mean they have a chance against the Trojans.
Meineke Car Care Bowl:  Syracuse. Though this week my projected standings are more in line with the projected selection order.
Birmingham Bowl: Louisville
Beef O'Brady's Bowl (or perhaps New Era Pinstripe Bowl): South Florida

Home for the holidays: Cinci, Rutgers, UConn. All of these teams will have a major struggle to reach bowl eligibility, and I don't think they will.

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