Bowl Projections, post-week 13 2010

Okay, I didn't expect much of what happened this weekend. Only one more of these this season.

BCS Bowls

BCS Title: Oregon (P10) vs. Auburn (SEC) 
Rose: Wisconsin (B10) vs. TCU (MWC/autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS AQ champ)
Sugar:  Arkansas (at-large) vs. Ohio State (at-large)
Orange: Virginia Tech (ACC) vs West Virginia (Big East)
Fiesta:  Nebraska (B12) vs. Stanford (at-large/autobid as BCS #4)

Here's the rationale (such as it is, in this crazy season)

Oregon's blowout win over Arizona should prevent Auburn from passing them. South Carolina has a chance to knock off Auburn (somewhat better than Oregon State's chances of knocking off Oregon), but as much as I hate doing it, I have to move Auburn into the title game.

Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State end up in a three-way tie at 7-1 in the Big Ten; this ends up going all the way to BCS rankings for the tiebreaker. The Badgers seem to have a pretty firm grasp on the top spot in the polls barring a loss. MSU's series of near-loss experiences is making it hard to understand how they beat Wisconsin. There's been some speculation that with losses by the teams in between Ohio State and Wisconsin in the polls, it may be possible for Ohio State to move into the Rose Bowl, but I don't think it's likely.

Virginia Tech wins the ACC because they always do (and they're the only team undefeated in ACC play right now). They've locked up a spot in the ACC championship game, and will play Florida State next weekend.

I have no idea who will in the Big 12, even though I know (I think) that the Big 12 title game will be betwen Oklahoma and Nebraska. I'm projecting Nebraska, but won't be shocked if Oklahoma wins, or even if BCS oddness puts Oklahoma State or even Texas A&M in the B12 title game.

Arkansas seems the likely pick to replace Auburn in the 'SEC' slot in the Sugar Bowl right now; they're likely to be the top-ranked SEC team after Auburn.

I think West Virginia beats Rutgers and UConn loses to USF, which puts the 'eers in the BCS. This may just be wishful thinking in that I really don't want a Big East champion that lost to Temple. Pitt also has a chance, but since it depends on Rutgers beating WVU, it's really not much of one.

The Rose is hoping for an upset in the SEC championship game that moves TCU into the BCS title game, but probably won't get it. That means they're stuck with the top Big Ten team in the BCS rankings vs the top non-AQ. TCU has locked up the top non-AQ spot barring bizarre behavior by the voters and/or computers.

The Sugar Bowl selects Ohio State to play Arkansas, likely giving the Buckeyes their first win over an SEC school in a BCS game. And you wondered why Ohio State liked the BCS.

The Orange Bowl selects West Virginia to play Virginia Tech because they really don't want Stanford.

Picking last, the Fiesta has to select Stanford to play the Big 12 champion.

And just for fun, alternate projection if South Carolina wins the SEC championship game

BCS Title: Oregon (P10) vs. TCU (MWC/autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS AQ champ) Auburn (SEC) 
Rose: Wisconsin (B10) vs. Stanford (at-large/autobid as BCS #3)
Sugar:  South Carolina (SEC) vs. Ohio State (at-large)
Orange: Virginia Tech (ACC) vs Auburn (at-large) 
Fiesta:  Nebraska (B12) vs. West Virginia (Big East)

In either set up, you can pretty much swap Wiscy and Ohio State if the BCS standings do, and slot any Big East, Big 12, and ACC champions where I've slotted WVU, Nebraska, and Virginia Tech, respectively.

Other Big East Bowls

Champs Sports Bowl (Orlando): Notre Dame, which did the impossible and beat USC and Utah in a season they lost to Navy and Tulsa.
Meineke Car Care Bowl (Charlotte):  UConn.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (NYC):  Syracuse.
Autozone Liberty Bowl (Memphis): Pitt.
BBVA Compass Bowl (Birmingham): Louisville.
Beef O'Brady's Bowl: South Florida.

Home for the holidays: Cinci, Rutgers. Neither can become bowl eligible.

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