This week's BCS standings re-introduce the implausible title game that we've had for most of the season, and right now the highest-ranked teams in some conferences seem unlikely to win them. But that's where we are.
If the season ended today, and assuming the highest-ranked team in each conference would be its champion, here's how I think the BCS would look (this is not a reflection on where I think things will be at the end of the year, or any kind of commmentary on future game; this is just slotting teams where they currently stand). The only 'projection' element is in filling the at-large slots.
BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Alabama (Autobid as #2)
Rose: #9 USC (P10) vs. #10 Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: #3 Texas (B12) vs. #4 TCU (autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #11 Ohio State (at-large) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #10 Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. #13 Oregon (at-large)
Here's the logic:
Florida and Alabama are currently #1 and #2, but since the results this week assured they will play in the SEC championship game, this certainly won't happen.
USC and Iowa go the Rose as Pac 10 and Big 10 champs, respectively. USC won't win the Pac 10 because Oregon is up a game and owns the tiebreakers with USC. Iowa won't win the Big Ten because they'll lose to Ohio State next week. But they are the highest-ranked teams in their respective conferences as far as the BCS is concerned this week.
Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ.
Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ.
TCU is guaranteed a bid as the highest-ranked non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8.
The Sugar first choses a team to replace Florida. They have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, except that Alabama is in the title game as well, so they select Ohio State. This won't happen because the SEC title game rematch won't happen.
The Orange has to pick Georgia Tech's opponent next. Oregon is the only remotely good fanbase available here (the other options are TCU, Cinci, Boise State, Pitt, and rematch with Miami). This won't happen because only Stanford could win the Pac 10 without Oregon losing another game.
The Fiesta must select either TCU or Cincinnati to play Texas. Since TCU is much closer, they select TCU. This actually might happen if Texas lays an egg in one of its remaining regular season games and so Cinci jumps them for the title game.
This leaves Cincinnati to play Ohio State in the Sugar, which would be a good game, but won't happen. The Big East champ seems a near-lock for the Sugar, now that WVU is out of the mix and seems near-certain that a western team will be the non-BCS conference team that gets in.
Boise State, Pitt, and Miami get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; LSU gets to grumble about the two team per conference rule.
Changes from last week: Alabama returned to #2 thanks to the statistical rankings. Ohio State beat Penn State and so became the second Big Ten team. Oregon lost and dropped behind USC in the BCS rankings.