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Bowl Projections, week 12


Not a lot of change from last week, as the only top-14 team to lose was LSU, which wasn't going to get a BCS bid anyway (barring a crazy upset of the eventual SEC title game loser, which seems extremely unlikely at this point).

Teams in Bold have wrapped up their BCS bid.  

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: Texas (Big 12) vs. Florida (SEC)
Rose: Oregon (Pac 10) vs. Ohio State (B10)
Fiesta: Oklahoma State (at-large) vs. TCU (MWC/in top 8)
Sugar: Alabama (SEC) vs. Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. Penn State (at-large)

Here's the logic
BCS title game:
Floribama played cupcakes this week, so no useful information was provided. So I'm still projecting Florida as SEC champs. Texas destroyed midling Big 12 team Kansas to formally lock up its Big 12 tile game appearance.

Other conference champions:
Ohio State earned the Rose Bowl bid by beating Iowa last week, and its regular season is over with a win over Michigan. Remember how last week the Pac 10 race was insanely crazy and had scenarios where six teams could win the league? Well, it simplified itself to the point where the Oregon/Oregon State winner a week from Thanksgiving goes to the Rose Bowl, and that game's in Eugene.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ; they have their division wrapped up, which means the usual Virginia Tech wins the ACC story won't happen, and it's hard to see them losing the ACC title game to Clemson. Though it's the ACC, so stranger things have happened, and it wouldn't be that huge of an upset.

Both Cinci and Pitt had the week off. Cinci is still projected to win the Big East but it's getting extremely tempting to switch that to Pitt. TCU is guaranteed a bid as a non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8. Both the polls and computers prefer them to Boise.

The Sugar chooses first to relace Florida. Since they've got dibs on another SEC team, and Alabama just might end up with an automatic spot by virtue of being in the top 4 even if they lose, they take the Tide here.

The Fiesta chooses next to replace Texas. Despite a narrow win over Colorado, the Cowboys will likely be available; Oklahoma's loss to Texas Tech means it's very hard to see them winning next week, rivalry game or no. And I'm no longer projecting two Pac 10 teams as available, though I guess there's a remote chance Oregon stays in the top 14 after a loss to Oregon State in the Civil War.

Thanks to Oklahoma State getting into the mix, the Orange is able to snatch up the second Big Ten team. I like Penn State better than Iowa for that, though there are arguments either way. Rumor has it the Fiesta prefers Iowa if they take a Big Ten team, while the Orange prefers Penn State. Looking at a map, this is perfectly logical, and there's really not much between the two, even if Iowa beat Penn State.

The Fiesta then has to select an opponent, and takes TCU because geography says its prferable to Cinci.

And Alabama has to play Cinci in the Sugar Bowl.

Big East bowls

Gator (Jax)/Sun (El Paso): Pitt. UConn helped out the Big East bowl picture by beating Notre Dame, and there's no way ND beats Stanford. WVU could take this spot by beating Pitt in the Backyard Brawl.


Meineke/Charlotte: If WVU and Cinci beat Pitt, the Panthers would go here. But they won't be within a win of Pitt if Pitt beats WVU.


International Bowl/Toronto: USF. South Florida going to Canada for a bowl is somewhat amusing.


PapaJohns.com Bowl/Birmingham: By virtue of playing two non-BCS teams and losing to us (and presumably to WVU, but not Louisville), Rutgers moves down a spot. They stay ahead of UConn because UConn will likely lose to USF (even in Hartford in December).

St. Petersburg Bowl: UConn

staying home for the holidays: Syracuse

staying home for the holidays and firing the coach: Louisville

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