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If the season ended today, week 11


We've still got the implausible title game with this week's BCS rankings, but at least impossible or highly implausible conference champs are no longer projected by taking the highest-ranked team this week. It seems like barring an upset, Floribama is 1/2 until the SEC title game.

If the season ended today, and assuming the highest-ranked team in each conference would be its champion, here's how I think the BCS would look (this is not a reflection on where I think things will be at the end of the year, or any kind of commmentary on future game; this is just slotting teams where they currently stand). The only 'projection' element is in filling the at-large slots.

Teams in italics are projected to win automatic bids. Teams in bold have already clinched an automatic bid.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Alabama (Autobid as #2)
Rose: #11 Oregon (P10) vs. #10 Ohio State (B10)
Fiesta:  #3 Texas (B12) vs. #4 TCU (autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #13 Penn State (at-large) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #7 Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. #12 Oklahoma State  (at-large)

Here's the logic:

Florida and Alabama are currently #1 and #2, but since the results last week assured they will play in the SEC championship game, this certainly won't happen.

Ohio State has won the Big Ten, regardless of what happens in the rest of the season. USC's loss means Oregon is now the highest-ranked Pac 10 team, and the projected conference champion.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ.
Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ.
TCU is guaranteed a bid as the highest-ranked non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8.

The Sugar first choses a team to replace Florida. They have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, except that Alabama is in the title game as well, so they select Penn State (or Iowa), as Big Ten teams travel extremely well. This won't happen because the SEC title game rematch won't happen.

The Orange has to pick Georgia Tech's opponent next. They've taken Big 12 teams in the past when they could, and now thant Oklahoma State is available, they take them. This won't happen because if the seemingly inevitable Floribama/Texas title game happens, Oklahoma State will likely be in the Fiesta. The Orange will be okay, though, as they'll be able to take Penn State/Iowa.

The Fiesta must select either TCU or Cincinnati to play Texas. Since TCU is much closer, they select TCU. This actually might happen if Texas lays an egg in one of its remaining regular season games and so Cinci jumps them for the title game.

This leaves Cincinnati to play Penn State in the Sugar, which would be a good game, but won't happen. The Big East champ seems a near-lock for the Sugar, now that WVU is out of the mix and seems near-certain that a western team will be the non-BCS conference team that gets in. But they'll play the SEC championship game loser here.

Boise State and Pitt get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; LSU and Iowa get to grumble about the two team per conference rule.

Changes from last week: Ohio State beat Iowa and so won the Big Ten. USC lost so the highest-ranked Pac 10 team became likely actual champ Oregon. Lots of losses in the 9-17 range moved Oklahoma State into the top 14.

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