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Bowl Projections, week 11



Five top-14 teams lost this week, and LSU is SEC Iowa. In any case, little beyond the title game is as it would have been projected at the start of the year, or even last week.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: Texas (Big 12) vs. Florida (SEC)
Rose: Oregon (Pac 10) vs. Ohio State (B10)
Fiesta: Oklahoma State (at-large) vs. TCU (MWC/in top 8)
Sugar: Alabama (SEC) vs. Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. Penn State (at-large)

Here's the logic
BCS title game:
Although 'Bama looked better this week, I'm not going to flip my SEC championship game winner pick every week.

Other conference champions:
Ohio State earned the Rose Bowl bid by beating Iowa. I'm still projecting Oregon as Pac 10 champ because they're a game up on everybody else. With more than one or two games left, I think I'd go with Stanford, but I don't think there's time for the Cardinal to catch the Ducks.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ; they have their division wrapped up, which means the usual Virginia Tech wins the ACC story won't happen, and it's hard to see them losing the ACC title game (presumably to Clemson, as they have tiebreakers). Though it's the ACC, so stranger things have happened.

Cinci is still projected to win the Big East but it's getting extremely tempting to switch that to Pitt. TCU is guaranteed a bid as a non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8. Both the polls and computers prefer them to Boise.

The Fiesta chooses first to replace Texas. Last week's carnage in the #9-#17 ranks, combined with Oklahoma State's win over Texas Tech, means the Cowboys will likely be available. And I'm no longer projecting two Pac 10 teams as available.

The Sugar chooses next to relace Florida. Since they've got dibs on another SEC team, and Alabama just might end up with an automatic spot by virtue of being in the top 4 even if they lose, they take the Tide here.

Thanks to Oklahoma State getting into the mix, the Orange is able to snatch up the second Big Ten team. I like Penn State better than Iowa for that, though there are arguments either way.

The Fiesta then has to select an opponent, and TCU because geography says its prferable to Cinci.

And Alabama has to play Cinci in the Sugar Bowl.

Big East bowls

Gator/Sun: Pitt. I know a lot of people are still projecting Notre Dame here, but the Irish won't beat Stanford, and I've got to think they'd need a lot of luck to beat UConn. Of course, UConn's had bad luck all year. Anyway, 6-6 ND doesn't go here, and 7-5 ND is a reach.


Meineke/Charlotte: This one really depends on the ND/UConn game. If Notre Dame wins, they go here; otherwise, WVU does. I'm projecting WVU.


International Bowl/Toronto: ... and the Irish aren't in the International Bowl deal. So Rutgers goes here.


PapaJohns.com Bowl/Birmingham: USF; it looks likely they'll be bowl eligible, and non-WVU Big East teams and CUSA teams can't be counted on to sell tickets

St. Petersburg Bowl: UConn

staying home for the holidays: Syracuse

staying home for the holidays and firing the coach: Louisville

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