The BCS' Worst Nightmare

by Sean Keeley on Nov 11, 2009 1:36 PM EST Comment 24 comments

I was reading Building the Dam's article on how Oregon State can win the Pac-10 and go to the Rose Bowl and I started thinking. I mean, we all hate the BCS, right? Right? Except for the CEO of Tostitos and people who love to argue counterpoints for the sake of arguing counterpoints like Colin Cowherd, we're all pretty much in agreement that it's a horrible thing that solves nothing. Good? Good.

There's a lot of fun scenarios in play when it comes to the BCS, the National Championship and undefeated teams. There's six teams that can currently stake a claim to their inclusion in the title game, all of whom have yet to be beaten. Of course, we don't like to admit it but this is actually a fairly common scenario. We like to pretend this the first time in history something like this has come up but it happens all the time.

And of course, the other thing we don't like to admit is that these situations usually have a way of working themselves out. Boise State will lose a game they're not supposed to, TCU will lose to Utah, Cincinnati will run into a wall against West Virginia or Pittsburgh and then it's just a matter of who wins the SEC Championship in order to find out who plays Texas for the title.

Some a-hole will write an article about how the BCS got it right (as if the BCS did anything other than simply exist), Beano Cook will get to use words like "pageantry," TV ratings will be solid and all will be "right" with the world.

But what if...

What if just once all of the tumblers fell into place? Or in the case of this discussion...out of place. What if every single thing that could go wrong for the BCS went wrong over the next couple weeks? What if the BCS Doomsday Scenerio happened? I'd like to think it would look a little something like this...

ACC

Duke shocks the world by beating Georgia Tech, Miami and Wake Forest, earning a berth in the ACC Championship game. Their opponent is a middling Boston College but the Blue Devils ride the good feelings all the way to a league championship.

Big East

West Virginia, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh all take turns beating each other and ensure that none of them remain in the top ten. Pittsburgh ends up winning the conference with a team full of nationally-unknown players (let's face it, no one outside the Tri-State area has even heard of Dion Lewis).

Big Ten

Iowa falls off a cliff, losing to Ohio State and maybe even Minnesota. Ohio State meanwhile looks ahead against Michigan and loses. Penn State stumbles against Michigan State and Wisconsin, having closed out the season with wins over UM, NW and Hawaii, sneaks into the Big Ten title.

Big 12

The Big 12 North is already a walking BCS doomsday scenario so it doesn't even really matter who emerges, but let's say Kansas State since they lack the cache of a Nebraska. Texas loses to Kansas in a shocker just before the Big 12 Championship so they're out of the running for the title. So when Kansas State beats them to win the Big 12, they drop out of the BCS picture altogether.

MWC

TCU cuts a swath through it's remaining competition and easily finishes the season undefeated.

Pac-10

A myriad of things have to happen for Oregon State to emerge as the Pac-10 champions...but let's just assume they do.

SEC

Florida's and Alabama are already set for the SEC Championship. But let's say along the way both falter. Maybe Auburn shocks the Tide and Spurrier pulls something out of his butt this weekend. Now the cache is gone. And because Alabama is slightly less Tebow-ish than Florida, we're gonna make sure the Crimson Tide win.

WAC

Boise State wins out. Obviously.

And so, ladies and gentlemen, I give to you the most fantastic trainwreck of BCS Bowls you've ever seen. It's glorious.

National Championship - TCU vs. Boise State

Rose Bowl - Oregon State vs. Wisconsin

Orange Bowl - Pittsburgh vs. Duke

Sugar Bowl - LSU vs. Georgia Tech

Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State vs. Alabama

Football Gods, please....make it happen.

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Oh Great Gridiron Gods...

Please oh Please make this happen! I would love to see the BCS end up in one big clusterfuck like this. And if this does happen i hope that TCU vs Boise game for the title is an epic game finishing in a final score that just ridiculous, something like 3-2.

by MarshallSt on Nov 11, 2009 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

There is now possible way one or even both of those schools would finish with less than 17ish points in a game.

In fact, that would actually be a damn good game I think.

by NOLACuse on Nov 11, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know

But it’d be a ratings killer and ruin the BCS. Truthfully it would be a great game and prob finish like 49-42

by MarshallSt on Nov 11, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

totally agree

Mountain West Connection

by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 15, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Only problem with all that is Boise State.

Even if they are undefeated they will dip below a one loss Alabama following the SEC championship game. TCU might have a realistic BCS title shot, but I think Boise’s schedule is too weak for the computers to make it happen. Personally I think Cincinnati winning out and facing TCU for the title is nearly as juicy and damaging to the BCS because I get the feeling that people just don’t respect Cincy they would a Pitt or WVU or Cuse (if we were good enough). That would actually be a good title game too, btw.

by NOLACuse on Nov 11, 2009 2:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hell a one loss SEC team likely leapfrogs an undefeated Cincy. The polls love the SEC

by ryanwk628 on Nov 11, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Those matchups aren't that bad

Oregon State vs. Wisconsin would be pretty good. Paul Johnson against LSU’s D again.

K-State vs. Bama and Pitt vs. Duke (“basketball game!”)? Wel…

Nice work, Sean.

Sam Lickliter. Never forgive. Never forget. Beat IU.

by ReadingRambler on Nov 11, 2009 2:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

OSU vs Wisconsin probably would make a good Sun Bowl

But not Rose Bowl

Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician - The Syracuse blog that cares.

by Sean Keeley on Nov 11, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Haha, Pitt vs. Duke. Ridiculous.

Nice read.

by nickfeely8 on Nov 11, 2009 2:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ya never know.

’’Apparently the the only way to kill a lion is by rear naked choke…personally i’d just kick it in the head.’’ – Bas Rutten

"I am impervious to all pain!" – Pat Smith, UFC 1, right before tapping out to a Shamrock heel hook.

by Pennywise on Nov 11, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The one drawback

is that all these seldom-powers would probably create record live attendance crowds. So even if ratings were terrible, the BCS guys would say that the most important thing is that the stadiums were full.

by ezcuse on Nov 11, 2009 2:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

teams like Duke and KSU etc.

Only have a few thousand football fans. The basketball horde would not travel for football. Most of those BCS games would have to rely on bigger schools to fill them.

This new learning amazes me, Sir Bedevere. Explain again how sheep's bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.

by BirdGT on Nov 11, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting hypothetical

Is it possible for a conference champion to be bowl ineligible? Obviously not this season but say the Big 12 North team next year loses all of their games but goes 4-8 on the season with 4 Big 12 wins or something like that. They upset the Big 12 South team but are ineligible to go to the BCS. Who goes then?

This new learning amazes me, Sir Bedevere. Explain again how sheep's bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.

by BirdGT on Nov 11, 2009 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Great question

I demand that we make it happen

Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician - The Syracuse blog that cares.

by Sean Keeley on Nov 11, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Happened

A few years ago with North Texas I believe. They went 5-6 and won the Sun Belt, and thus got the Sun Belt’s only bowl bid. Not sure what would happen if it was a BCS game, but I would guess it’d be the same thing

Without Gerry McNamara we wouldn't have won 10 f-- games, not 10

by PoetryInMoten on Nov 11, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

DO NOT GET TROY STARTED ON NORTH TEXAS

SRSLY you guys.

He’ll go into BEAST MODE, pronto.

by Cody K on Nov 11, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

NO ONE MENTIONS THE MEAN GREEN ON THIS SITE!!!

NO ONE!!!!!!

Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician - The Syracuse blog that cares.

by Sean Keeley on Nov 11, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like the BCS

Obviously I am in the minority here, but I think there is something to it being different than every other sport. How boring would things be if USC could limp into the newfound playoffs every year and win after losing two games. Or if everyone’s small school darlings get hammered by a team like Ohio St in the first round that no one really likes to watch play.

I like the fact that it is crazy as hell and no one can understand the formula. I went to a D3 school and love D3 sports and follow the football playoffs even now that I am gone, but I don’t want D1 football to turn into that.

I like it for what it is. I like the fact that I can watch a bowl game every night for three weeks. If we went to a playoff the bowl system would be ruined regardless of what people say about keeping it. It would be like the NIT only happening twenty times. No one wants that.

The bottom line is it will never happen. The Presidents of these schools have no incentive to change. The current system makes them a ton of money, and the controversy is great for creating intrigue. There is no such thing as bad publicity.

by smann on Nov 11, 2009 10:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It already is like the NIT happening twenty times.

Just because the BCS isn’t a playoff system doesn’t mean the other bowl teams didn’t miss out on the good stuff. Do you really watch the PapaJohns.com bowl and think, “This isn’t at all a sub-par bowl game. It is just as important as any BCS game.”
It might be crazy and wacky and all that stuff, but it still doesn’t make any damn sense and it’s designed so that the rich can get richer. The more mid-major schools reach the BCS, the more coaches and ADs of the big boys get annoyed that they didn’t get what they feel entitled to. If two or even one mid-major reaches the title game, I bet we get some more big name voices added to the opposition. It’s a system that instills little confidence in the champions it creates and moneymaker or not, it’s bound to fail eventually.

by NOLACuse on Nov 12, 2009 10:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to throw a damper on such an elegant construct, but...

… the bowls wouldn’t quite work out that way given the regular season results you’ve described.

Important players records at the end of the year
ACC: Duke (ACC champ) 8-4, Georgia Tech 10-2 or 9-3, Miami 9-3 or worse
Big East: Pitt (Big East champ) 10-2; Cinci 11-1; WVU 9-3 (assuming no further loses to middle-tier types like Rutgers or UConn)
Big 12: Kansas State (Big 12 champs) 9-4; Texas 11-2; Okie State 10-2 or worse
Big Ten: Ohio State (Big Ten co-champ, wins Rose Bowl tie breaker due to H2H wins over Wisconsin) 10-2, Wisconsin 10-2, Iowa 9-3
Pac 10: Oregon State (Pac 10 co-champ, wins Pac 10 due to tiebreaker over Stanford) 9-3, Stanford 9-3, USC 9-3
SEC: Alabama 12-1 (SEC champion), Florida 11-2, LSU 10-2
TCU and Boise are undefeated.

BCS title probably is: Alabama vs. TCU (because the SEC superiority cult will have 12-1 ‘Bama #1 in the polls; they probably need to lose to Mississippi State, too if you want that Boise-TCU title game)
Rose: Oregon State v. Ohio State
Orange: Duke v. Texas (best fans available)
Fiesta: Kansas State v. Wisconsin (should be in the top 25 after all this, and Badgers travel better than SEC fans, who aren’t t entirely convinced lands west of the MIssissippi or north of the Mason-Dixon line exist)
Sugar: LSU v. Pitt

by drothgery on Nov 12, 2009 1:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Utah is going to end this scenario...sorry, guys.

I know! I know! We’d all love to see the BCS implode.

But you’ll just have to wait until next year when Utah does go undefeated, instead of 11-1. ;)

by JazzyUte on Nov 12, 2009 3:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

OSU or Iowa in the Rose Bowl....nothing else is possible

Whoever wins the game this weekend (Ohio State) goes to the Rose Bowl.

by OrangeBuckeye on Nov 12, 2009 8:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Big Ups Sean, Well Writen Piece

but i just want to throw this out there: on the RT link, i believe “Scenerio” should be “Scenario” lol ;-)
otherwise you nailed it. except alabama will go undefeated so the question is “which undefeated mid-major plays the Tide in the championship and why?” #RollTideRoll (http://www.rollbamaroll.com/)

~Luke B.

by AZLK on Nov 12, 2009 10:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs