A few small shifts in the standings make the 'if the season ended today' for this week a lot more plausible.

If the season ended today, and assuming the highest-ranked team in each conference would be its champion, here's how I think the BCS would look (this is not a reflection on where I think things will be at the end of the year, or any kind of commmentary on future game; this is just slotting teams where they currently stand). The only 'projection' element is in filling the at-large slots.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Texas (B12)
Rose: #8 Oregon (P10) vs. #4 Iowa (B10)
Fiesta:  #11 Penn State vs. #6 TCU (autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #3 Alabama (at-large; autobid as #3) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #10 Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. #12 USC (at-large)

Here's the logic:

Florida and Texas are currently #1 and #2, setting up the SEC vs. Texas that the pollsters have been declaring is inevitable since the begining of the season.

Oregon and Iowa go the Rose as Pac 10 and Big 10 champs, respectively.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ.
Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ.
TCU is guaranteed a bid as the highest-ranked non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8.
Alabama is guaranteed a bid as a top-4 team from a BCS conference that is not the conference champion.

The Sugar first choses a team to replace Florida. They have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, and Alabama is guaranteed a slot, so they select Alabama.

The Fiesta then chooses a team to replace Texas. They'd have exclusive rights to another Big 12 team, but none are available. Since the Fiesta has long since proven that it will do what's best for the Fiesta Bowl, regardless of how that affects the other BCS bowls, it selects Penn State (even though it would be more logical to take USC and let Penn State go to the Orange, and you could make a decent case that Boise State deserves to go here).

The Orange has to pick Georgia Tech's opponent next. USC is the only remotely good fanbase available here (the other options are TCU, Cinci, Boise State, Pitt, and Utah).

The Fiesta must select either TCU or Cincinnati to play Penn State. Since TCU is much closer, they select TCU.

This leaves Cincinnati to play Alabama in the Sugar. Boise State, Pitt, and Utah get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; LSU gets to grumble about the two team per conference rule.

Changes from last week: Texas moved up to #2 and completely reshuffled things. Oregon beat USC to become the presumptive Pac 10 champion. Still, no changes in which teams are playing in BCS bowls, just in matchups

Edit: Explained why Penn State is in the Fiesta Bowl.