Bowl Projections, week 9

Since I'm not sure I'll have much time later today or early this week to put together the 'if things ended today' document that reflects the current BCS standings, I'm going to do the purely speculative version first.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: Texas (Big 12) vs. Cincinatti (Big East)
Rose: Oregon (Pac 10) vs. Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: Penn State (at-large) vs. USC (P10)
Sugar: Alabama (SEC) vs. TCU (MWC/in top 8)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs.Florida (SEC)

Here's the logic
BCS title game:
This may be my crazy week. But I can't shake the feeling that at least half of the major conference unbeatens will take a hit eventually. On the other hand, I became somewhat more convinced that Texas and Cinci won't be the ones that do. Which means that Texas and Cinci get to play for everything, and the SEC gets to sit this one out. Obviously, this means Texas and Cinci win the Big 12 and Big East, respecitively.

Iowa goes the Rose as Big 10 champs; they lose at Ohio State but win all of their other remaining games, while Ohio State loses at Penn State. Iowa owns the tiebreaker over Penn State due to a head to head win. Oregon pretty much has an iron lock on the Pac 10 title at this point, barring an epic collapse; they're two games up on everybody else.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ; they nearly have their division wrapped up, which means the usual Virginia Tech wins the ACC story won't happen, and it's hard to see them losing the ACC title game. Though it's the ACC, so stranger things have happened.

TCU is guaranteed a bid as a non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8. The pollsters like Boise a little more than TCU, but the stats like TCU a lot more.

The Fiesta chooses first to replace Texas. Since no Big 12 team is available, the Fiesta Bowl committee takes Penn State -- the best-travelling team available, without a moment's hesitation. Since the Big East does not have an 'anchor' bowl, no one is chosen to replace Cinci.

The Orange has the first at-large selection, and does a dance of joy when Florida is availabe, and puts the home-state Gators up against Georgia Tech.

The Fiesta then has to select an opponent, and takes USC for a rematch of last year's Rose Bowl.

TCU is shuffled off to the Sugar Bowl, so Alabama gets to play an undefeated MWC champ two years in a row.

Big East bowls

Gator/Sun: Notre Dame is likely eligible for this slot, and takes it. This annoys Pitt fans to no end, as the Panthers should have a better record and a head-to-head win over ND.

Meineke/Charlotte: WVU's loss to USF puts them low enough in the selection order that Pitt goes here even with a somewhat worse fan base.

International Bowl/Toronto: ... but the 'eers don't drop far. WVU goes here.

PapaJohns.com Bowl/Birmingham: Rutgers. Looked good against UConn.

St. Petersburg Bowl: USF; it looks likely they'll be bowl eligible, and non-WVU Big East teams and CUSA teams can't be counted on to sell tickets

Filling some conference's unused slot: UConn

staying home for the holidays: Syracuse, Louisville