Well, here's the second week of my breakdowns. These will get more interesting later in the year, I expect.
If the season ended today, and assuming the highest-ranked team in each conference would be its champion, here's how I think the BCS would look (this is not a reflection on where I think things will be at the end of the year, or any kind of commmentary on future game; this is just slotting teams where they currently stand). The only 'projection' element is in filling the at-large slots.
BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Alabama (autobid as #2)
Rose: #5 USC (P10) vs. #4 Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: #3 Texas (B12) vs. #6 TCU (autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #12 Penn State (at-large) vs. #8 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #11 Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. #10 Oregon (at-large)
Here's the logic:
Florida and Bama are currently #1 and #2 (this almost certainly can't last, since they'll play each other in the SEC title game if they win out, and will drop behind other teams if they don't, but it's true now), so they go to the BCS title game.
USC and Iowa go the Rose as Pac 10 and Big 10 champs.
Texas goes to the Fiesta as Big 12 champ.
Miami (FL) goes to the Orange as ACC champ.
Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ.
TCU is guaranteed a bid as the highest-ranked non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8.
The Sugar first choses a team to replace Florida. They'd normally have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, but since two are playing in the BCS title game, they can't take one. Of the available teams in the BCS top 14, Penn State easily has the best fan following (and the bowls are interested in making money, not providing the best possible game), so they select #12 Penn State.
The Orange has to pick Georgia Tech's opponent next. The next-best fanbase availalbe (Virginia Tech) would be a regular season rematch, so they turn to #10 Oregon instead, though they might also go with #14 Oklahoma State.
The Fiesta must select either TCU or Cincinnati to play Texas. Since TCU is much closer, they select TCU.
This leaves Cincinnati to play Penn State in the Sugar. Boise State, Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; LSU gets to grumble about the two team per conference rule.
Changes from last week: TCU replaces Boise State as the mid-major with the autobid; Georgia Tech replaces Miami (FL) as presumptive ACC champion.