Bowl Projections, week 7

Unlike my 'if the season ended today' post, my 'bowl projection' posts do try and guess at what will happen in the future; they're based on how I think things will end up given what has already happened, rather than being strictly based on the current BCS rankings.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: Alabama (SEC) vs. USC (P10)
Rose: Oregon (at-large) vs. Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: Texas (B12) vs. Boise State (WAC/in top 8)
Sugar: Florida (at-large) vs. Cincinnati (BE)
Orange: Virginia Tech (ACC) vs. Ohio State (at-large)

Here's the logic
BCS title game:
I think Alabama will beat Florida in the SEC title game if the Gators don't lose before then. And I don't see anyone else in a BCS conference going undefeated. Beyond that, USC usually wins out after losing a random Pac 10 game, and that should be enough to get them to #2 after Florida and Texas have lost and Boise's strength of schedule has fallen off.

Iowa goes the Rose as Big 10 champs; they lose at Ohio State but win all of their other remaining games.

Texas goes to the Fiesta as Big 12 champ; they suffer a hiccup somewhere, but it doesn't keep them from winning the Big 12 this year.

Virginia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ; the Hokies almost always end up on top when the ACC roulette wheel stops spinning.

Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ. I figure they may lose to WVU or Pitt, but 6-1 in the Big East will be good enough to win the conference.

Boise State is guaranteed a bid as a non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8. TCU loses to BYU or Utah, and so doesn't pass Bosie.

The Sugar first choses a team to replace Alabama. They have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, so they take Florida.

The Orange has to pick Virginia Tech's opponent next. Since Ohio State slips back in to the top 14 after beating Iowa and winning out except for a squeeker vs. Penn State (albeit unimpressively), they pick the Buckeyes in a straightforward move to sell tickets.

The Fiesta must select either Boise State or Cincinnati to play Texas. Since Boise State is much closer, they select Boise State.

This leaves Cincinnati to play Penn State in the Sugar.

Big East bowls

Gator/Sun: Notre Dame is likely eligible for this slot, and takes it.
Meineke/Charlotte: West Virginia will be snatched up by the first bowl that can take them, and can't take Notre Dame, so they go here.
International Bowl/Toronto: Pitt; probably considers Pitt and UConn, with no interest in USF
PapaJohns.com Bowl/Birmingham: USF; go here mostly because they went to St. Pete last year
St. Petersburg Bowl: UConn; have to go somewhere
staying home for the holidays: Rutgers, Syracuse, Louisville