Once we get to the second half of the football season, each week I usually try to take a look at where the top teams are (even in these dark times where the Orange are not even close to being a top football team) right now, and where I think they'll end up.

I used to try and do these on my own blog, or post them to BigEastBoards.com, but since neither gets very much traffic, I think I'm going to try posting them here this year.

If the season ended today, and assuming the highest-ranked team in each conference would be its champion, here's how I think the BCS would look (this is not a reflection on where I think things will be at the end of the year, or any kind of commmentary on future game; this is just slotting teams where they currently stand)

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Alabama (autobid as #2)
Rose: #7 USC (P10) vs. #6 Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: #3 Texas (B12) vs. #4 Boise State (autobid as #4, and highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #13 Penn State (at-large) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #10 Miami (ACC) vs. #11 Oregon (at-large)

Here's the logic:

Florida and Bama are currently #1 and #2 (this almost certainly can't last, since they'll play each other in the SEC title game if they win out, and will drop behind other teams if they don't, but it's true now), so they go to the BCS title game.

USC and Iowa go the Rose as Pac 10 and Big 10 champs.
Texas goes to the Fiesta as Big 12 champ.
Miami (FL) goes to the Orange as ACC champ.
Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ.
Boise State is guaranteed a bid as the #4 team, and also as a non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8.

The Sugar first choses a team to replace Florida. They'd normally have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, but since two are playing in the BCS title game, they can't take one. Of the available teams in the BCS top 14, Penn State easily has the best fan following (and the bowls are interested in making money, not providing the best possible game), so they select #13 Penn State.

The Orange has to pick Miami's opponent next. The next-best fanbase availalbe (Virginia Tech) would be a regular season rematch, so they turn to #11 Oregon instead.

The Fiesta must select either Boise State or Cincinnati to play Texas. Since Boise State is much closer, they select Boise State.

This leaves Cincinnati to play Penn State in the Sugar. TCU, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; LSU gets to grumble about the two team per conference rule.